Comments on: Let Her Go Down: On Collapse http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/ Sharon Astyk's Ruminations on an Ambiguous Future Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:48:36 +0000 #?v=2.3.2 By: Althea Walters http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-13207 Althea Walters Thu, 13 Nov 2008 01:35:49 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-13207 wgw2tjy63rw1fjq6 wgw2tjy63rw1fjq6

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By: Yiedyie http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-25 Yiedyie Fri, 01 Feb 2008 19:18:00 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-25 I actually live in Romania, I know about peak oil for about 2 years. I think your suppositions about Balkans countries and about balkanization is from the books you lack the actual living experience.<br/><br/>You are right about the elite and their continuity but is not so easy they tried so hard to keep a stability using a lot of manipulation and coups d'├ętat and they didn't survive all. They needed badly a peaceful climate that they had,but in the onset of the decline you elite will not have it. It's not a mere case of history repeating. People are sick and tired and will not swallow it. I think history is not on anyone's side (as the Archdruid put it). And the people are silently boiling i talked to some people on the train, there are a lot of economic scams in Romania right now and i heard a lot of people saying we need another revolution(and our wasn't peaceful).Revolution that the elites might easily capture in their favor. But what elites lack this time is a peaceful aftermath. <br/><br/>You should do better your homework: The situation in Romania was similar to that described by Orlov, <br/>but Romania was long past the peak and the elite didn't build their structure so rapidly and so good as in Russia.<br/><br/><br/>When the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe disintegrated the people splashed over Europe and over the world with it was a difference of potential(culturally and financially speaking), and the discharge took place(or osmosis if you like). <br/><br/>We don't have now this difference of potential we are all culturally homogeneous (blame the Globalization), where are we to go on the Moon?<br/><br/>I have a question for you: if USA gets balkanize the Balkans how would get ? <br/><br/>After all you are probably right USA would get balkanize but not for long, balkanization is not a steady, stable process.<br/><br/>P.S. I don't think you can learn from Soviet Union more than the actual lesson of collapse, everything else is different in the situation of USA, and the world today. <br/><br/>Keep up the good work! I actually live in Romania, I know about peak oil for about 2 years. I think your suppositions about Balkans countries and about balkanization is from the books you lack the actual living experience.

You are right about the elite and their continuity but is not so easy they tried so hard to keep a stability using a lot of manipulation and coups d’├ętat and they didn’t survive all. They needed badly a peaceful climate that they had,but in the onset of the decline you elite will not have it. It’s not a mere case of history repeating. People are sick and tired and will not swallow it. I think history is not on anyone’s side (as the Archdruid put it). And the people are silently boiling i talked to some people on the train, there are a lot of economic scams in Romania right now and i heard a lot of people saying we need another revolution(and our wasn’t peaceful).Revolution that the elites might easily capture in their favor. But what elites lack this time is a peaceful aftermath.

You should do better your homework: The situation in Romania was similar to that described by Orlov,
but Romania was long past the peak and the elite didn’t build their structure so rapidly and so good as in Russia.

When the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe disintegrated the people splashed over Europe and over the world with it was a difference of potential(culturally and financially speaking), and the discharge took place(or osmosis if you like).

We don’t have now this difference of potential we are all culturally homogeneous (blame the Globalization), where are we to go on the Moon?

I have a question for you: if USA gets balkanize the Balkans how would get ?

After all you are probably right USA would get balkanize but not for long, balkanization is not a steady, stable process.

P.S. I don’t think you can learn from Soviet Union more than the actual lesson of collapse, everything else is different in the situation of USA, and the world today.

Keep up the good work!

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By: Dan http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-24 Dan Wed, 30 Jan 2008 23:13:00 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-24 Though I am one of the "market will solve the problem" type persons that argued against you on the oildrum I have just come to this site and I applaud your efforts.<br/>I think you are broadly right that the type of thing here that you describe will certainly help those who become disenfranchised during the downswing. I think you are broadly right that many people will be able to eke out an existence by e.g. container gardening during the period of reconfiguring around much reduced personal transportation.<br/><br/>Personally I figure we are looking at the great depression mark ii followed by a recovery based on an electric economy using renewables, nuke and some much reduced oil from tar sands and venezuela heavy crude.<br/>I expect the middle class to be gutted, with maybe 4/5 of the current size made poor.<br/>I expect the remainder to be the only ones who can afford cars and the total U.S. private automobile fleet will be reduced to perhaps 30 million vehicles.<br/>The remainder will make do with buses and trains.<br/>The delivery system will be based on a combination of long distance freight trains, shipping and local electric delivery trucks.<br/>Walmart will still exist and so will supermarkets though the prices will be much, much higher than they are today.<br/><br/>The rest of the infrastructure will *not* collapse though it may seem like it to those who have been used to 250 million vehicles zooming around the interstate at all times of the day and night.<br/><br/>We will make it. Though I am one of the “market will solve the problem” type persons that argued against you on the oildrum I have just come to this site and I applaud your efforts.
I think you are broadly right that the type of thing here that you describe will certainly help those who become disenfranchised during the downswing. I think you are broadly right that many people will be able to eke out an existence by e.g. container gardening during the period of reconfiguring around much reduced personal transportation.

Personally I figure we are looking at the great depression mark ii followed by a recovery based on an electric economy using renewables, nuke and some much reduced oil from tar sands and venezuela heavy crude.
I expect the middle class to be gutted, with maybe 4/5 of the current size made poor.
I expect the remainder to be the only ones who can afford cars and the total U.S. private automobile fleet will be reduced to perhaps 30 million vehicles.
The remainder will make do with buses and trains.
The delivery system will be based on a combination of long distance freight trains, shipping and local electric delivery trucks.
Walmart will still exist and so will supermarkets though the prices will be much, much higher than they are today.

The rest of the infrastructure will *not* collapse though it may seem like it to those who have been used to 250 million vehicles zooming around the interstate at all times of the day and night.

We will make it.

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By: risa http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-23 risa Tue, 29 Jan 2008 00:36:00 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-23 Why relocalize? Umm, because it's way more fun?<br/><br/>We homesteaded in the 70s after reading the Nearings and did it all -- 12 volt, built our own house, and so on -- and those were our BEST years. <br/><br/>Where we are now -- one acre instead of 12, and working in the city -- not as much fun, but we still think growing our own stuff, and networking with those who do, is the best part.<br/><br/>Stuart kind of wags his finger, like "who do you think you're kidding?" But I don't think I'm kidding anyone with my beets and Jerusalem artichokes and winter squash -- I'm enjoying them, and wish as much happiness on everyone else in all our short lives.<br/><br/>So, go, Sharon. You are on the right track. But you knew that.<br/><br/>risa b Why relocalize? Umm, because it’s way more fun?

We homesteaded in the 70s after reading the Nearings and did it all — 12 volt, built our own house, and so on — and those were our BEST years.

Where we are now — one acre instead of 12, and working in the city — not as much fun, but we still think growing our own stuff, and networking with those who do, is the best part.

Stuart kind of wags his finger, like “who do you think you’re kidding?” But I don’t think I’m kidding anyone with my beets and Jerusalem artichokes and winter squash — I’m enjoying them, and wish as much happiness on everyone else in all our short lives.

So, go, Sharon. You are on the right track. But you knew that.

risa b

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By: LisaZ http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-22 LisaZ Mon, 28 Jan 2008 23:38:00 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-22 Thanks for the links, Sharon. I was hoping for some long reading today, to do some thinking.<br/><br/>Over at my own blog I post one example of why I'm needing this today. The economy is disheartening right now. I'm happy to "buckle down" and prepare to make do even more than we are already. I wish I could take your class on storing food. For now I'll just use the internet to learn, and perhaps soon I'll be the one teaching others in my community.<br/><br/>Lisa in MN Thanks for the links, Sharon. I was hoping for some long reading today, to do some thinking.

Over at my own blog I post one example of why I’m needing this today. The economy is disheartening right now. I’m happy to “buckle down” and prepare to make do even more than we are already. I wish I could take your class on storing food. For now I’ll just use the internet to learn, and perhaps soon I’ll be the one teaching others in my community.

Lisa in MN

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By: Susan Och http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-21 Susan Och Mon, 28 Jan 2008 01:27:00 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/01/27/let-her-go-down-on-collapse/#comment-21 All you can ever be sure to take with you is your education, so it makes sense to try to learn, and teach, the sorts of skills that will be useful should the hard times come.<br/><br/>When I was in my twenties, it seemed that we were on the edge of post industrial times and the only logical thing was to learn to garden and do for myself. Thirty years later, we seem close to the edge again, but I've learned that every time can be seen through this lens. But it turns out that preparing for post industrial times is less a matter of collecting the seeds and tools and more a matter of mastering the skills. <br/><br/>Even if I never absolutely <b>need</b> to know how to sew, or can, or garden, or eat weeds, or dig a well, or capture wild yeast, or anything else, knowing how to do these things has enriched my life. The quest to learn and pass along these skills has provided a meaningful contrast to the often frustrating and trivial work that I must do to pay the mortgage and buy health insurance.<br/><br/>Perhaps the hard times won't come until my daughters' time. They are already the ones, among their peers, who know how to cook and check the oil and change a tire and give CPR to a baby. When the world needs them, they will have to skills and sense to step up and care for their own families and others. Now I realize that when my elders were passing these skills on to me, whether it was in school, at home, in 4-H, or in books, it was not a transaction between two people but between the generations.<br/><br/>What else would you do with a life, anyway? All you can ever be sure to take with you is your education, so it makes sense to try to learn, and teach, the sorts of skills that will be useful should the hard times come.

When I was in my twenties, it seemed that we were on the edge of post industrial times and the only logical thing was to learn to garden and do for myself. Thirty years later, we seem close to the edge again, but I’ve learned that every time can be seen through this lens. But it turns out that preparing for post industrial times is less a matter of collecting the seeds and tools and more a matter of mastering the skills.

Even if I never absolutely need to know how to sew, or can, or garden, or eat weeds, or dig a well, or capture wild yeast, or anything else, knowing how to do these things has enriched my life. The quest to learn and pass along these skills has provided a meaningful contrast to the often frustrating and trivial work that I must do to pay the mortgage and buy health insurance.

Perhaps the hard times won’t come until my daughters’ time. They are already the ones, among their peers, who know how to cook and check the oil and change a tire and give CPR to a baby. When the world needs them, they will have to skills and sense to step up and care for their own families and others. Now I realize that when my elders were passing these skills on to me, whether it was in school, at home, in 4-H, or in books, it was not a transaction between two people but between the generations.

What else would you do with a life, anyway?

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