Comments on: Major Global Warming Tipping Point Vastly Closer than Anticipated http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/ Sharon Astyk's Ruminations on an Ambiguous Future Fri, 29 Aug 2008 05:49:15 +0000 #?v=2.3.2 By: John Rosengarten http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-9539 John Rosengarten Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:12:00 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-9539 Nice article on this here. http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1215-24.htm At to the question of when/how often has this happened before, they think twice, and neither was a part of the ice-age cycles. They think they were caused by volcanoes increasing the average temperature by ten degrees F. which started the cascade disaster of melting calrathes releasing 900 million metric tons of methane into the atmosphere. Even the optimist scientists are predicting we hit that level by 2100. However, that's assuming rates predicted a few years ago, and does not weigh the CO2 increases that are going to come out of India and China next year when a hundred new coal-fired power plants are expected to come on-line. Buy land on high ground, my friends! The oceans are going to "overtop" a lot more than New Orleans' levees, and long before 2100! Nice article on this here.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1215-24.htm

At to the question of when/how often has this happened before, they think twice, and neither was a part of the ice-age cycles.

They think they were caused by volcanoes increasing the average temperature by ten degrees F. which started the cascade disaster of melting calrathes releasing 900 million metric tons of methane into the atmosphere.

Even the optimist scientists are predicting we hit that level by 2100.
However, that’s assuming rates predicted a few years ago, and does not weigh the CO2 increases that are going to come out of India and China next year when a hundred new coal-fired power plants are expected to come on-line.

Buy land on high ground, my friends! The oceans are going to “overtop” a lot more than New Orleans’ levees, and long before 2100!

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By: Jim http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-5144 Jim Sat, 03 May 2008 07:53:18 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-5144 I need to brush up on my spelling, but I do have a serious comment to make. Gandhi always appealed to the people on the ground. It might sound obvious but the only way to get anywhere near a solution would be to get the buy-in of everyone. People however need an incentive or “carrot” to be persuaded to help each other (world wars are good for this but bad for many other reasons). They won’t accept orders and who can blame them? What juicier carrot is there than the chance to save or acquire wealth? It might be possible (I am trying to prove it) to give everyone the ability to grow their own energy in the form of hydrogen without consuming fossil fuels. If the means of accomplishing it is cheap you might even be able to start an energy revolution. The seeds of competition are strong; I think it might work. But I would say that wouldn’t I? I need to brush up on my spelling, but I do have a serious comment to make. Gandhi always appealed to the people on the ground. It might sound obvious but the only way to get anywhere near a solution would be to get the buy-in of everyone. People however need an incentive or “carrot” to be persuaded to help each other (world wars are good for this but bad for many other reasons). They won’t accept orders and who can blame them? What juicier carrot is there than the chance to save or acquire wealth? It might be possible (I am trying to prove it) to give everyone the ability to grow their own energy in the form of hydrogen without consuming fossil fuels. If the means of accomplishing it is cheap you might even be able to start an energy revolution. The seeds of competition are strong; I think it might work. But I would say that wouldn’t I?

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By: Jim http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-5143 Jim Sat, 03 May 2008 07:06:47 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-5143 I don't think Ghandi would know what to do. I don’t think Ghandi would know what to do.

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By: Pangolin http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4654 Pangolin Thu, 24 Apr 2008 05:08:30 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4654 Our real hope lies in the idea that maybe things will get bad enough for us to do something useful before they get much worse. Massive carbon capture and sequestration IS possible but it would require mass action on a scale not seen since the Yellow Emperor of China decide he needed a really big wall. If we started on a course of harvesting and converting biomass to charcoal and then burying it AND planting orchards on top we could sequester all that extra carbon. There are also other odd little tricks that could be utilized based upon things like the fact that tea plantations increase cloud formation and rainfall due to very particular dust. This kind of thing would have to be a global co-operative effort and literally involve a fat percentage of the worlds population. Of course with the improved crop yields that biochar agriculture is showing feeding those workers won't be too hard. The trick is that we have to get a kick in the rear strong enough to worry the powers that be but not so strong that it renders governments moot or ineffective. Playing dice with the biosphere is no fun. Our real hope lies in the idea that maybe things will get bad enough for us to do something useful before they get much worse. Massive carbon capture and sequestration IS possible but it would require mass action on a scale not seen since the Yellow Emperor of China decide he needed a really big wall.

If we started on a course of harvesting and converting biomass to charcoal and then burying it AND planting orchards on top we could sequester all that extra carbon. There are also other odd little tricks that could be utilized based upon things like the fact that tea plantations increase cloud formation and rainfall due to very particular dust.

This kind of thing would have to be a global co-operative effort and literally involve a fat percentage of the worlds population. Of course with the improved crop yields that biochar agriculture is showing feeding those workers won’t be too hard.

The trick is that we have to get a kick in the rear strong enough to worry the powers that be but not so strong that it renders governments moot or ineffective.

Playing dice with the biosphere is no fun.

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By: Henry Warwick http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4547 Henry Warwick Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:57:49 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4547 The truly sad part of a clathrate meltdown is that it will happen so slowly, no one at any given time will notice. Environmental Amnesia sets in - things change slowly and over the decades we stop noticing. So, it's not like "one afternoon all the clathrates melted, the world turned into an oven the next afternoon and then we all died" kind of thing. It's going to take many generations for that to play out, and that's what makes it such a nasty nasty thing. Example: Methane is something like 20x more effective than CO2 in trapping heat. So, let's say in the next 50 years, we melt off 5% of the clathrates. That would result in a doubling of the heat over the CO2 we've pumped. But again: it would take another generation to notice - so you're looking at basically everyone alive now not living long enough to see the effects, and even when the effects come on, they happen slowly enough that people only notice it through old memory "I remember when those mountains had snow on them!" To quote Marker, Forgetting isn't the opposite of memory, it's the lining. It's always "right there". So too is our amnesia. Economics is a good model in this regard. I'm 49, and I remember my dad working in a factory and we owned a house and we bought a car and we had a TV and a stereo and we went on vacations, and we had 6 kids and lived on food stamps and it was pretty hellish, but we survived on what he made, as my mom was busy chasing kids all day. Today, that's really not possible at all. Wages stagnated decades ago, and the "single income" family is a thing of the past. We vaguely remember things being different, but our lived present experience shouts over our previous experiences which shrink from the noise, and sink farther into the pocket of memory, and eventually fade into the lining of forgetfulness. We very well may be looking at another Permian extinction - the problem is: no one alive will ever find out, and I would submit our kids won't live long enough to find out either, even thought it may well be a plain as fact scientific certainty. best, HW The truly sad part of a clathrate meltdown is that it will happen so slowly, no one at any given time will notice. Environmental Amnesia sets in - things change slowly and over the decades we stop noticing. So, it’s not like “one afternoon all the clathrates melted, the world turned into an oven the next afternoon and then we all died” kind of thing. It’s going to take many generations for that to play out, and that’s what makes it such a nasty nasty thing.

Example: Methane is something like 20x more effective than CO2 in trapping heat. So, let’s say in the next 50 years, we melt off 5% of the clathrates. That would result in a doubling of the heat over the CO2 we’ve pumped. But again: it would take another generation to notice - so you’re looking at basically everyone alive now not living long enough to see the effects, and even when the effects come on, they happen slowly enough that people only notice it through old memory “I remember when those mountains had snow on them!”

To quote Marker, Forgetting isn’t the opposite of memory, it’s the lining. It’s always “right there”. So too is our amnesia. Economics is a good model in this regard. I’m 49, and I remember my dad working in a factory and we owned a house and we bought a car and we had a TV and a stereo and we went on vacations, and we had 6 kids and lived on food stamps and it was pretty hellish, but we survived on what he made, as my mom was busy chasing kids all day.

Today, that’s really not possible at all. Wages stagnated decades ago, and the “single income” family is a thing of the past. We vaguely remember things being different, but our lived present experience shouts over our previous experiences which shrink from the noise, and sink farther into the pocket of memory, and eventually fade into the lining of forgetfulness.

We very well may be looking at another Permian extinction - the problem is: no one alive will ever find out, and I would submit our kids won’t live long enough to find out either, even thought it may well be a plain as fact scientific certainty.

best,

HW

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By: Sharon http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4536 Sharon Tue, 22 Apr 2008 13:40:06 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4536 Veritas- the Permian extinction. And there is the danger that using methane hydrates will accellerate their release - we just don't know. Daharja, I'm not holding my breath. But I do hope our Gandhi is out there. Sharon Veritas- the Permian extinction. And there is the danger that using methane hydrates will accellerate their release - we just don’t know.

Daharja, I’m not holding my breath. But I do hope our Gandhi is out there.

Sharon

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By: Daharja http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4531 Daharja Tue, 22 Apr 2008 04:25:23 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4531 I sure wish Gandhi was here right now. He'd know what to do. Or Jesus. Or maybe Buddha. Heck, I'd settle for one of the lesser prophets. Or a minor deity. As none of the above are likely to make an appearance anytime soon, despite the apocalyptic Signs Of Doom (including The Blob released from its Arctic prison on stage right), it looks like its up to us to come up with solutions. Any ideas, guys? I sure wish Gandhi was here right now. He’d know what to do. Or Jesus. Or maybe Buddha. Heck, I’d settle for one of the lesser prophets. Or a minor deity.

As none of the above are likely to make an appearance anytime soon, despite the apocalyptic Signs Of Doom (including The Blob released from its Arctic prison on stage right), it looks like its up to us to come up with solutions.

Any ideas, guys?

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By: Anna Haynes http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4520 Anna Haynes Sat, 19 Apr 2008 23:23:53 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4520 Sharon, I'm really glad to see you alerting your readers to this. Any chance you could also give them a heads-up about Bill McKibben's 350.org campaign? (we need a mass movement here, and to get it, we need awareness and group actions) Sharon, I’m really glad to see you alerting your readers to this. Any chance you could also give them a heads-up about Bill McKibben’s 350.org campaign? (we need a mass movement here, and to get it, we need awareness and group actions)

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By: is this how it is » Things I think are worth a read - April 11th through April 18th http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4513 is this how it is » Things I think are worth a read - April 11th through April 18th Sat, 19 Apr 2008 00:47:12 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4513 [...] Casaubon?s Book » Blog Archive » Major Global Warming Tipping Point Vastly Closer than A... - [...] […] Casaubon?s Book » Blog Archive » Major Global Warming Tipping Point Vastly Closer than A… - […]

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By: Hank Roberts http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4510 Hank Roberts Fri, 18 Apr 2008 23:15:13 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2008/04/17/major-global-warming-tipping-point-vastly-closer-than-anticipated/#comment-4510 Anyone have a better link to the source of the story? I got only this far. http://meetings.copernicus.org/egu2008/press_room_sessions.html Anyone have a better link to the source of the story?
I got only this far.

http://meetings.copernicus.org/egu2008/press_room_sessions.html

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