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	<title>Comments on: Scenario Planning</title>
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	<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/</link>
	<description>Finding the keys to the future…and trying not to lose them in the mess.</description>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7755</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:56:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7755</guid>
		<description>Interesting overlap between the scenarios you describe, and Permaculture co-creator David Holmgren&#039;s recent http://www.futurescenarios.org/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting overlap between the scenarios you describe, and Permaculture co-creator David Holmgren&#8217;s recent <a href="http://www.futurescenarios.org/" rel="nofollow">http://www.futurescenarios.org/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Chile</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7754</link>
		<dc:creator>Chile</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:55:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7754</guid>
		<description>Mia - you brought up an interesting point about countries where economies collapsed or wars/fighting broke out quickly.  I&#039;ve talked with a friend that has lived in areas like that.  He mentioned that he had to leave everything and flee in the middle of the night to avoid being murdered three times.  He also pointed out that Americans have no concept of life like that.  It really made me stop and think.

We prepare for the last scenario listed because it does seem the most likely and, as others have said, it&#039;s hard to prepare for the zombies.  One thing I have changed, however, is being more prepared when I&#039;m out and about.  Should something happen rapidly, even a natural disaster, I don&#039;t want to be stuck away from home in flip-flops with no cash.  I wear good walking shoes for even brief errands and always keep a bit of emergency cash on me.  At first, this made me feel like I was being paranoid, but now I just see it as common sense.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mia &#8211; you brought up an interesting point about countries where economies collapsed or wars/fighting broke out quickly.  I&#8217;ve talked with a friend that has lived in areas like that.  He mentioned that he had to leave everything and flee in the middle of the night to avoid being murdered three times.  He also pointed out that Americans have no concept of life like that.  It really made me stop and think.</p>
<p>We prepare for the last scenario listed because it does seem the most likely and, as others have said, it&#8217;s hard to prepare for the zombies.  One thing I have changed, however, is being more prepared when I&#8217;m out and about.  Should something happen rapidly, even a natural disaster, I don&#8217;t want to be stuck away from home in flip-flops with no cash.  I wear good walking shoes for even brief errands and always keep a bit of emergency cash on me.  At first, this made me feel like I was being paranoid, but now I just see it as common sense.</p>
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		<title>By: Leanne Veitch</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7753</link>
		<dc:creator>Leanne Veitch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 01:10:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7753</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m expecting the unexpected ;-)

In the meanwhile, we&#039;re doing what we can to make our community as sustainable as possible through the Transition Towns movement.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m expecting the unexpected <img src='http://sharonastyk.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>In the meanwhile, we&#8217;re doing what we can to make our community as sustainable as possible through the Transition Towns movement.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7752</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2008 20:39:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7752</guid>
		<description>Great conversation. This topic was nicely framed by John Michael Greer in his essay &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.oilcrisis.com/whatToDo/decline.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The Long Road Down: Decline and the Deindustrial Future&lt;/a&gt; from about four years ago. That&#039;s well worth reading for anyone that hasn&#039;t already.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great conversation. This topic was nicely framed by John Michael Greer in his essay <a href="http://www.oilcrisis.com/whatToDo/decline.htm" rel="nofollow">The Long Road Down: Decline and the Deindustrial Future</a> from about four years ago. That&#8217;s well worth reading for anyone that hasn&#8217;t already.</p>
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		<title>By: David</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7751</link>
		<dc:creator>David</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2008 19:36:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7751</guid>
		<description>@Donal:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Jethro’s last name was Bodine.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Nice one.

I don&#039;t know what I&#039;m preparing for. I&#039;m really concerned about the majority of folks here and everywhere who are not preparing -- who don&#039;t even think about preparing (like, for what?). Along with our own preparations to put our own houses in order, we all have an obligation to try to put other people&#039;s houses in order, since we&#039;ll need strong communities. And that&#039;s where the head-scratching comes in for me.

I guess it&#039;s all incremental work. Slowly more and more people will start to understand that we&#039;re not living in Business as Usual anymore. So we all need to be like the Catcher in the Rye, making sure that those kids don&#039;t go off the cliff.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Donal:</p>
<blockquote><p>Jethro’s last name was Bodine.</p></blockquote>
<p>Nice one.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know what I&#8217;m preparing for. I&#8217;m really concerned about the majority of folks here and everywhere who are not preparing &#8212; who don&#8217;t even think about preparing (like, for what?). Along with our own preparations to put our own houses in order, we all have an obligation to try to put other people&#8217;s houses in order, since we&#8217;ll need strong communities. And that&#8217;s where the head-scratching comes in for me.</p>
<p>I guess it&#8217;s all incremental work. Slowly more and more people will start to understand that we&#8217;re not living in Business as Usual anymore. So we all need to be like the Catcher in the Rye, making sure that those kids don&#8217;t go off the cliff.</p>
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		<title>By: MEA</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7750</link>
		<dc:creator>MEA</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:16:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7750</guid>
		<description>Sloth, no hooves...no cud...no scales...no wings ...

but it does&#039;t eat carion.

I&#039;m betting it&#039;s not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sloth, no hooves&#8230;no cud&#8230;no scales&#8230;no wings &#8230;</p>
<p>but it does&#8217;t eat carion.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m betting it&#8217;s not.</p>
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		<title>By: Kati</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7749</link>
		<dc:creator>Kati</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Aug 2008 19:19:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7749</guid>
		<description>I think scenario 5 is the only sitch that I actually have the ability to plan for.  The space to plan for, and the money to plan for.  The rest are certain possibilities (with varying levels of certainty) but for the most part, the outcome in any of those is largely out of my hands.  The fifth situation is one that on a small, personal level is something I can prepare for.  And, though it&#039;s a bleak future out of a brilliant past, it&#039;s less bleak than the others and therefore my hope.  As for the 3 families in one home and 11 folks sharing the bathroom....  *wry smile*  I don&#039;t know that 3 families would fit in my little home, but maybe one or two singleton friends who don&#039;t mind sharing space with an &quot;old married couple&quot; and our spoiled-rotten (yes, she is) daughter.....  The back yard is slowly turning garden/constructive space.  The front yard will hopefully be turned garden as soon as the hubby sees it&#039;s for the best.  Ideally I&#039;d love to build a workshop out where our cars park now that can be used both for animal housing (rabbits, my main thought) and a space for the hubby to do some bike repair or wood-working or other such productive and constructive hobby.  (He&#039;s currently a nascar fan who collects hats from his favorite driver as a &quot;hobby.&quot;  *rolling eyes*)

In the meantime, learning how to garden (though having varying levels of success at it), improving the security and weather-safeness of my home, working toward a job in the community, and working on strengthening my ties to my neighbours is all the more I can do to prepare.  That, and pray.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think scenario 5 is the only sitch that I actually have the ability to plan for.  The space to plan for, and the money to plan for.  The rest are certain possibilities (with varying levels of certainty) but for the most part, the outcome in any of those is largely out of my hands.  The fifth situation is one that on a small, personal level is something I can prepare for.  And, though it&#8217;s a bleak future out of a brilliant past, it&#8217;s less bleak than the others and therefore my hope.  As for the 3 families in one home and 11 folks sharing the bathroom&#8230;.  *wry smile*  I don&#8217;t know that 3 families would fit in my little home, but maybe one or two singleton friends who don&#8217;t mind sharing space with an &#8220;old married couple&#8221; and our spoiled-rotten (yes, she is) daughter&#8230;..  The back yard is slowly turning garden/constructive space.  The front yard will hopefully be turned garden as soon as the hubby sees it&#8217;s for the best.  Ideally I&#8217;d love to build a workshop out where our cars park now that can be used both for animal housing (rabbits, my main thought) and a space for the hubby to do some bike repair or wood-working or other such productive and constructive hobby.  (He&#8217;s currently a nascar fan who collects hats from his favorite driver as a &#8220;hobby.&#8221;  *rolling eyes*)</p>
<p>In the meantime, learning how to garden (though having varying levels of success at it), improving the security and weather-safeness of my home, working toward a job in the community, and working on strengthening my ties to my neighbours is all the more I can do to prepare.  That, and pray.</p>
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		<title>By: Donal</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7748</link>
		<dc:creator>Donal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:51:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7748</guid>
		<description>Jethro&#039;s last name was Bodine. I particularly like the recognition that things will happen differently in different parts of the world. I agree with the worldwide depression/resource scramble, but I think the third world is starting to experience it now. In parts of Africa, they&#039;re cooking and eating dirt. In other parts they&#039;re ethnically cleansing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jethro&#8217;s last name was Bodine. I particularly like the recognition that things will happen differently in different parts of the world. I agree with the worldwide depression/resource scramble, but I think the third world is starting to experience it now. In parts of Africa, they&#8217;re cooking and eating dirt. In other parts they&#8217;re ethnically cleansing.</p>
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		<title>By: Rosa</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7747</link>
		<dc:creator>Rosa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:49:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7747</guid>
		<description>GAB, it wouldn&#039;t take much change in resources or ideology at the federal level to let the states devolve to mostly governing themselves, without the messiness of rewriting any laws or having a power struggle. Laws are only unconstitutional if they&#039;re challenged in a functioning court system, right? And they only exist if they&#039;re enforced.

For instance, for speed limit and drinking age laws, Congress has used the carrot of highway funding instead of the stick of federal law. Lose the money, you&#039;ll see road laws diversify. For drug laws right now, the states have passed a wide variety of legalization/decriminalization laws, and federal law enforcement has chosen to enforce federal laws where they are stricter than state law - but all it would take is the FBI to decide they have more important priorities, and looser state laws would prevail.

Americans have a deep attachment to the concept of the United States, but not a lot of love for most of its actual agencies. As long as we&#039;re still theoretically governed by the Constitution, the actual behavior of the government doesn&#039;t seem to matter much to most people.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GAB, it wouldn&#8217;t take much change in resources or ideology at the federal level to let the states devolve to mostly governing themselves, without the messiness of rewriting any laws or having a power struggle. Laws are only unconstitutional if they&#8217;re challenged in a functioning court system, right? And they only exist if they&#8217;re enforced.</p>
<p>For instance, for speed limit and drinking age laws, Congress has used the carrot of highway funding instead of the stick of federal law. Lose the money, you&#8217;ll see road laws diversify. For drug laws right now, the states have passed a wide variety of legalization/decriminalization laws, and federal law enforcement has chosen to enforce federal laws where they are stricter than state law &#8211; but all it would take is the FBI to decide they have more important priorities, and looser state laws would prevail.</p>
<p>Americans have a deep attachment to the concept of the United States, but not a lot of love for most of its actual agencies. As long as we&#8217;re still theoretically governed by the Constitution, the actual behavior of the government doesn&#8217;t seem to matter much to most people.</p>
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		<title>By: Sharon</title>
		<link>http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/comment-page-1/#comment-7746</link>
		<dc:creator>Sharon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Aug 2008 16:47:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sharonastyk.com/2008/08/07/scenario-planning/#comment-7746</guid>
		<description>Greenpa, I think #6 is a possibility - I particularly dislike the idea of DAT scenarios, because I&#039;m *so* not ready to go to Mammoth Hunting Hunter-Gatherer mode.  I can butcher a chicken, but giant furry sloths look harder -and I don&#039;t even know if they are kosher.  And while the dogs are great at keeping out &#039;coons, they probably would have a tough time with saber-toothed cats (heck, the non-saber toothed ones the house keep them in line pretty well).

Seriously, I do know what you mean - I just keep hoping that if something weird happens, it will be something good, since there&#039;s not much else I can do.

Sharon</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greenpa, I think #6 is a possibility &#8211; I particularly dislike the idea of DAT scenarios, because I&#8217;m *so* not ready to go to Mammoth Hunting Hunter-Gatherer mode.  I can butcher a chicken, but giant furry sloths look harder -and I don&#8217;t even know if they are kosher.  And while the dogs are great at keeping out &#8216;coons, they probably would have a tough time with saber-toothed cats (heck, the non-saber toothed ones the house keep them in line pretty well).</p>
<p>Seriously, I do know what you mean &#8211; I just keep hoping that if something weird happens, it will be something good, since there&#8217;s not much else I can do.</p>
<p>Sharon</p>
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