Practice Losing Farther, Losing Faster: Everyday History in a Crashing Economy
Sharon September 18th, 2008
One Art
The art of losing isn’t hard to master;/so many things seem filled with the intent/to be lost that their loss is no disaster.
Lose something every day. Accept the fluster/of lost door keys, the hour badly spent/The art of losing isn’t hard to master.
Then practice losing farther, losing faster:/places, and names, and where it was you meant/ to travel. None of these will bring disaster.
I lost my mother’s watch And look! my last or/next-to-last, of three loved houses went./The art of losing isn’t hard to master.
I lost two cities, lovely ones. And, vaster,/ some realms I owned, two rivers, a continent/I miss them but it wasn’t a disaster.
- Even losing you (the joking voice, a gesture/I love) I shan’t have lied. It’s evident./the art of losing’s not too hard to master/thought it may look like (Write it!) like disaster.
- Elizabeth Bishop
I thought it might be worth getting a discussion going on how this looks to all of us. It is hard to know exactly where we’re headed – whether this is the first step in a long slide or the beginning of a fairly rapid reorganization that moves us to a much lower level – or both. In some senses, as I’ve always argued, it doesn’t really matter – all the discussions of whether we’re like Rome or whatnot can help us gauge the comprehensive sweep of history, and the way it will be looked at going backwards. They can remind us that history, while lived, is experienced both more slowly and more rapidly than most of us can really process. But historic sweeps don’t really tell any more of the larger story than localized narratives – for someone who moves from lower middle class rapidly to starvation (as happened quite a lot during the Depression), the world *did* collapse. Sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly – but the large sweep of history can’t really account for the not-insubstantial percentage of those who have already had collapse or are on the brink of it. For those who died for reasons that seemed mad to them based on their prior worldview, the world *did* fall apart, the apocalypse did come, the horsemen came marching. In some neighborhoods, in some places, right now, any claim that peak oil and its related financial disaster won’t really be as bad as we said, that it will take a century or two, would be laughed off rather as the dead killed in the first sacks of Rome might laugh at the idea that Rome wouldn’t fall for a good long time yet. Falling is all a matter of perspective.
The problem with sweeping historical views is that ultimately, they must come down to a narrative account that has to be summed up by “the poor are always with us” – that is, the first stop on the disaster train is always to make those who were just barely getting by move to hell, and not get by any more. Some of them die, and some of them just suffer hideously. If we imagine that the disaster has only taken place when a significant portion of the most privelege have been equally discommoded, if the stockbrokers have to be as hungry as the janitors, we will indeed be waiting generations for the disaster. In fact, most likely we will miss it altogether - we will say “but there were always poor and hungry” as though the fact that there are more, that the world really is falling apart for a percentage of the populace doesn’t matter. After all, history tends to be written by the educated and priveleged, not those who eat out of garbage cans. An account of the experience that sees it through the eyes of the earliest victims is in many ways as legitimate as an overarching view, narrated back – but far quieter.
Most of my readers will recognize John Michael Greer’s _Long Descent_ as the clearest articulation of the sweeping historical vision, and I truly think it is one of the best peak oil books ever written. It provides a useful corrective to a perspective that is real, if not quite as widespread as I believe Greer thinks it is. And it seems to be truly penetrating the narrative of peak oil discussions in a deeply productive way, which pleases me. I do, however, think it is worth articulating the ways in which a larger vision might also be unhelpful to us – not because I think Greer’s work itself is insufficiently nuanced, but because the versions of stories we tell to ourselves about how the world works always gets oversimplified. As people read his book and begin to nod and recognize that perhaps the zombies aren’t actually on the march yet, I think there’s a danger that some people may give up getting zombie-ready 
. This (and I assume you all know that by “zombie ready” I mean “increasing pantry and warm clothes” not “home-scale tactical nukes”), I think, could be dangerous for the people most likely to be impoverished, to experience peak oil as a true collapse – because there are always early victims, often large categories of them, who experience their world as collapsing, because their particular sphere of it is. And IMHO, it is always wisest to assume you might be one of them. If not, you can enjoy being pleasantly surprised and donate your preparations to others who were not so blessed.
My own interest, I admit, is in what might be described as the “underarching narrative” – that is the experiences of ordinary people as their losses accellerate. I’ve been watching people send me personal stories of foreclosure, their first visits to a food pantry, their fears of death by freezing and hunger, the job losses, the increasing desperation. And under the overarching narrative, their experience provides a useful, and terrible corrective to the sense that we are just beginning something. We are, of course, but just as we are beginning the disaster as a whole, those who always stood closest to the precipice are falling firmly into the hole, and crashing to the bottom.
So I thought it would be worth asking my readers – what is your experience so far? Are you watching the markets with polite interest or watching your children’s college funds and your retirement disappear? Are you already unemployed, or are things still booming? What does the world look like in your neighborhood. It is not all the story there is to tell, but it is part of the historical narrative too – what we experience now is part of, not a single story, but the thousands of historical narratives that will arise from these events.
Sharon
Things are still pretty much booming here in my little city in Central MN. We just opened a grand new library (that is a “green” building but with no windows that actually open!) in our downtown area just blocks from my house. Other commercial and municipal buildings are being built or renovated (old downtown buildings are looking fabulous due to some development that’s still continuing), including a new police station. Our city, being just an hour north of Minneapolis, has been growing in population and still is, so new buildings have been “needed”. Though I expect that to discontinue soon. City budgets are getting tighter and of course, since much of the building money comes from a local 1/2 cent sales tax option we voted in, with consumers spending less that will mean less for the city’s coffers.
My family’s personal finances have never been better. Thanks to peak oil and the Riot for Austerity and all that, we’ve gotten ourselves on track to be completely free of all debt but mortgage in three years or less. I don’t know if we really have that much time, but I feel great b/c our payments are reasonable for us right now and we are not getting ourselves into more consumer debt at all.ever.period.
We are able to use this time and money to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. I’m trying to get the pantry from a 3 month supply to a 6 month supply in the next couple of months before we have to pay to the natural gas bill to heat the house. That adds about $150 to our utility bill from November to March. I feel better prepared for that than ever!
Thanks for all you’re doing to help us along, Sharon. It really is invaluable to my family.
In my city, I see more people riding bikes than ever before. The lines at the Food Bank, when I accompany my friend, are longer each time. The Food Bank discount store is adding a second register to meet demand. It seems a few more small businesses and local restaurants have closed their doors lately. The listings for pets and horses grow longer every month on craigslist as people can no longer afford their food and care, or are losing their homes and cannot take their animals with them.
Personally, we worry about the continuing crash of the housing market as we lower the price on our house for sale once again. We stress about trying to find a new place to live that we can grow food and make a living. And, as I emailed you, a place we can be safe. The drug cartel wars in Mexico threaten to spill into Arizona and residents along the drug routes through the state already experience considerable burglary and violence on a regular basis. As times get tougher, I suspect this will only get worse.
But, our health is good, we are not destitute at this time, and we have the ability, awareness, and motivation to continue to prepare. We still struggle for the balance needed to live in the present, though, as well as prepare for the future.
For me, things are currently fine, but Brandeis is starting to be pinched. We’re watching our student worker budget dry up at the library, while the student applications sound more and more desperate because some of them are helping their families pay for necessities rather than just wanting a job for book money. There’s no talk of full-time staff cuts yet, but while I wouldn’t necessarily be the first to go, I’m still pretty junior and don’t have my degree yet, so I’m kind of worried about my job. I’m also worried that whatever the trust fund that’s paying for my education is in will collapse…I’m paying tuition off as fast as I can rather than worrying about it when I’m done, but it wouldn’t take too many factors to leave me unemployed and in an awful lot of education debt. I am, however, being very very glad that I don’t have children or any debt other than tuition.
Having to live in tent outdoors for a year during the recession of the late 1980′s (which was a depression in my neck of the woods) I know that nothing is permanent.
For many people life has been pretty easy in the larger sense, living comfortably numb paycheck to paycheck with plenty of food a given, a warm place to live, steeply rising home value as a cushion for retirement when the gold watch for 30-years on the job is given. Now times are more uncertain, forcing many people from their comfort zone.
But there is one thing I know. In adversity is when the human spirit truly shines. When some people are shaken from their norm they rise to the occasion and become better for it. History shows this after the Black Death of the middle ages: then came the Renaissance.
The coming months and years are going to be very difficult for many people. But I predict in the long run we will come out of it much better on the whole. There will be casualties along the way. Life is like that, it is just the way it is and nothing is certain. Overall this stage in history is pointing to greater things that we haven’t even yet envisioned.
We’re doing okay. The spousal unit has a job that is well paid and secure for at least the next 8 months. We’re debt free except for the mortgage, and we have a very ambitious plan to reduce the principle drastically during the 8 remaining months of guaranteed employment he’s got. He has a few job offers on the table as well.
Still, I’m increasingly nervous. I feel very grateful that I put in the largest garden I’d ever worked early this spring, before the meltdown got properly underway. I’m glad I decided this was the year to add laying hens to our mini-wannabe-homestead. And I started canning and drying food this year. We’re looking into replacing some non-edible landscaping with fruit trees and berry canes, and mulling alternatives to our oil-based heating system. I’ve finally begun stocking up on a few very long storing items other than food. But I’m really not prepared for anything too drastic to happen. If the electricity were to be cut off long term, fr’instance, I’d be lost.
We are doing okay. But I think that is because we have made changes along the way. We’ve paid down debt, ramped up food preservation and production (thanks to the IDC Challenge). WE heat with wood and have a free source of wood. We live simply. But we worry. My husband is the only wage earner. He is a school music teacher. A position that is easily cut during tight school budget years.
But Maine is expecting a heating oil crisis this winter. 85% of the homes use heating oil. The federal government just approved an increase in Liheap funding. 7 million dollars is to come to Maine. When spread out over the projected demand for aid, it comes out to an extra 100.00 per applicant. So one fill of heating oil. Over a 4-5 month heating season. And for folks that don’t qualify for liheap this winter is going to lower the standard of living for many.
The state has never been economically strong. So with the current turmoil, I could see a cascading effect here. Starting with retirement accounts not providing the security promised just a month ago. We are a demographically old population in Maine. So with folks struggling even more than before, they won’t be spending on anything other than essentials. That effects state tax base. Which effects funding for infrastructure and schools.
On top of all this my small town experienced a major fire of it’s commercial district. Five stores gone. That is significant for a town of 2,000. That is local property taxes that can’t be collected. Now we will have drive 20 miles to get to a hardware store.
But we plug away on our homestead, work hard to prepare for winter and enjoy autumn in Maine. WE are going apple picking today!
Things are definitely slowing in the regional economy. The City of Sacramento is cutting back on all services, including fire and police. The State just passed a sham of a budget (mostly borrowing from next year). I work in planning and environmental review for new development and redevelopment. The work is still there, but there is less of it. Our company let a contract worker go last week because there was not enough to keep everyone busy. I am trying to better prepare for tougher times because eventually the work will dry up, though we may get by doing contract work for cities as they lay off fulltime staff. I will be emptying out a small Roth IRA and moving the money to a bank. I haven’t made much of anything beyond the principle so there wont be much in the way of a tax hit. The only reason it is still there is all of the money was a gift from my father-in-law, who believes in investing. We have only talked vaguely about the state of the economy, but I think he will understand what I am doing. I am not worried about the bank going under. It might but the government will stand behind the FDIC even if it means hyper-inflation. To do otherwise would result in a massive run on any banks still solvent and a collapse of the entire system. So the money is in danger of getting inflated away, but unlikely to disappear altogether.
I see things happening in bursts of activity like we saw this week and weekend. Something bad happens, government scrambles to keep up appearances. That fails over time. Bad happens, government scrambles, and on and on. When you have an economy entirely based on debt and debt based spending, the bottom falls out when people can no longer get loans or are unwilling to spend.
We are doing okay….we are both still employed and there are no worries about making mortgage payment or keeping food on the table. We are (well, I am) doing our (my) best to take precautions that providing food and heat will not be an issue. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that my family and many of those in my area are gardeners and hunters. It is a lot easier to deal with these kinds of changes when you are already accustomed to providing a lot of your own food. It leaves more resources available for paying for the things you can NOT provide for yourself. I do worry about the rising costs of things, but know that we are in a position to give up a lot of non~essential items in order to free up cash flow for the essentials before there are real problems for us.
One of the main things I’ve noticed has been the sheer number of houses for sale- and they are not selling. Our area didn’t participate very much at all in the boom in terms of all those risky mortgages- but stuff just isn’t selling. This is creating difficulties as many of these people have legitmate reasons for needing to sell such as a new job hours away, a need to get a special needs child into a different school system, etc. Not sure where this will end up but it doesn’t look good. Part of it is that they are all trying to get a somewhat inflated price imo for their homes- less than a year or two ago but way beyond what they would historically have sold for here- as the huge price increases did happen here to some degree as well.
A number of companies have closed down and/or laid off workers. The food shelf has had lots of demand and less food. I’ve noticed fewer people attending events such as shows and conferences- way fewer than in the past. So it is showing up here.
People are very worried about heating their homes this winter- lots of new wood stoves being installed plus people buying wood who generally didn’t use it much at all.
For me personally- I don’t know really. I’m not in debt- and have a frugal lifestyle. I saw this coming and bought wood for two years and filled the propane tank up after the snow melted. I’m not sure where I’m going work-wise other than the farm- have mostly stopped adjunct teaching and am sorting out what I want to do next when the farm winds down by winter. I am concerned about my son a great deal in terms of the economy as he is a young adult just out on his own……
I guess I’m concerned for everyone- I feel that as a country our vast wealth and resources were plundered and wasted- and that due to this we are not going to be able to do what needs to be done in terms of alternative energy etc. All that money has been wasted in propping up Wall St., payments to CEO’s of assorted crooked mortgage companies, etc- I do feel we are looking at the erosion of whatever remained of the middle-class- and that mostly when the dust clears there will be mostly lower income people hanging on by their teeth and a small number of very wealthy folks- feudal lords and serfs perhaps? It very much feels like we are heading back to that way- and I don’t like it.
I also recognize that even though I have my home paid for, etc- I still have to come up with the money for property taxes- a huge chunk of my income- as well as everything else one has to pay cash for. So I am trying to be careful in what I spend money on- but am putting it into things I consider to be of value.
Last night I car-pooled with a friend to a music jam that was quite a distance- but the car got over 40 mpg- so I figured it was like getting 80 mpg with 2 of us in it. My friend expressed concern over how far we were going for this jam- but I figured it was worth it- we got a great deal of pleasure out of playing with our friends- and sharing a meal with them- and I almost feel like I need to take advantage of all chances I get now to do these things as I don’t know when I won’t be able to anymore- at some point the drive might be too prohibitive- although we can just pick up others along the way and fit 2 others in the car as well- that will help for a bit! I did notice that 3 others car-pooled together- and someone else has taken to using a motorcycle- so there is increasing levels of consciousness re gas and the economy I’d say. Mostly it feels like people are waiting for the other shoe to drop around here…….. Also, we have a very tourist focused economy- fall foliage, skiing, etc- so this could really be problematic in that sense for our state economy.
My family has been debt free for 1½ years, with the exception of the mortgage. I work for a transit company, so my job seems relatively secure.
Our household has cut down a little on driving, but we still drive most trips. The rising cost of everything – food, fuel, heat/electricity – has been hitting us, and there are fewer indulgences. And, we are just wondering if we will ever retire, and if our parents may be spending their retirement in our house. I had wanted to ‘get aggressive’ with the mortgage, but now I don’t know if we can or if it makes the most sense.
Personally, I am very worried and stressed out. I just don’t know WHAT to do. I spend my days working, and my nights canning. I am exhausted. I worry about being able to visit my family across the state. I worry about the money in the savings account. I try to figure out if we should try to move to the country or if we should stay in the city, close to stable employment. My job is the thing I am least worried about – we are already understaffed and I am one of the more versatile employees in our department. I worry that I am WORRYING TOO MUCH.
Next week is vacation to see the grandparents; I hope it is relaxing.
Sharon and friends,
Yes, lots of homes for sale, often for months, and none selling, and the rental home across the street has cycled through a number of renters in three years. There are still crowds at Disney, the beach, House of Blues, etc, but more and more people in horrible deep debt, living on the edge, and desperate. A part-time teacher, a local man, came to me yesterday and asked how he could get out; he can’t get a job anywhere else, and is going mad living in the desert with no money.
More homeless, including students: California has food stamps for students and so on, but it bothers me that there is no work for them and that more than half of the state’s residents can’t afford to live. Anywhere.
Our student body have ballooned, with hordes cramming classes on the first days and then dropping like concrete flies. Depression desperation students, I’m told.
I have applied for jobs back East. I’m not the only one. My ex and I talked last night and he said I’m reasonably safe (tenured in a school with water rights!) and unlikely to end up in a cardboard box. I hope he’s right.
I planted a large garden and some of it yielded. Two monsoon rains have made me glad I used a Zuni waffle garden design.
Well, take care,
Jim
I’m in the bubble of a private university and you’d think we’d be shielded, but not so. The bad neighborhood that used to leave us alone has been seen wandering on campus. The first emergency poles were installed this summer. There are daily “Security Blotter” emails full of muggings, car thefts, and creepiness.
Last year 40 students worked in the library on work-study. This year, 70. The work hasn’t increased but the number of students qualifying for work study did.
I will graduate next year and be only about 30,000 in debt. This is nothing compared to others in the hundreds of thousands.
I worry because I’m working two jobs and four classes and I still don’t have any money.
I’m far from home (which, thankfully, is a small farm) and I worry about being able to get there.
I spend a lot of time hoping that things hold together long enough for me to graduate (would I have started this if I knew then what I know now? Probably not.) and get my debts paid off. Perhaps long enough to buy a little more land.
Oklahoma has a heavily oil-and-gas based economy, so in one sense we are ‘booming’ here. Unbelievably, Devon Energy has decided to build a massive 37-story skyscraper in downtown.
I have been noticing a lot more small cars being driven around town. Although, with the recent dip in gas prices I began to see more SUV’s again with temporary tags (just purchased).
My husband’s employment seems secure for now, and my business, although definitely reliant on people having disposable income, has not slowed down yet. We continue to pay down our mortgage and I continue to drive my 15 y.o. Geo Prizm. Our retirement appears to be disappearing right before our eyes, but luckily I have already somewhat resigned myself to that.
We are making slow but steady progress on our preps – food storage, small garden, stored liquor, cash on hand, nifty solar power gadgets and tools. Now we need to put in a rocket stove and mini-root cellar.
I look at the misfortune that has befallen both myself and those around me this year, and it can be hard to discern how related it all is to the descent of the world. Some of it (my SO’s taking a pay cut and facing job uncertainty, my sister’s SO work in auto sales is, unsurprisingly, tanking), is clearly related to the failing economy. Other stuff- namely, my mother developing a pill dependency, losing her job and facing legal trouble, at face seems unrelated to the greater problems of the world. In a way, though, I think it’s very much related. My mother’s a baby boomer whose life has followed the classic baby boomer arc. The fact that she’s becoming more dependent on others now- well, it’s the direction her whole huge generation is headed. Which, of course, is a huge, huge, concern.
Northwestern Vermont seems stable for now. There does seem to be an uptick in robbery in my area (I was a lucky recipient of this a few months back), and I know food shelves are pinched. My own crappy customer service job has remained surprisingly unthreatened, which I’m grateful for. I don’t expect this to last forever, though.
hi, Sharon. As you know, I’ve been studying the “big picture” for a long long time- as well as living the details.
At the moment, I’m really kind of mesmerized by the daily financial events. One shoe is dropping immediately after the other- very very fast. Most of them don’t hit the real public radar for days. Did you know Washington Mutual put itself up for auction- days ago? And Morgan Stanley is in talks to merge with Wachovia- which is a losing proposition from the get-go? Desperation everywhere.
I’m feeling like Bambi in the headlights, as I wrote over on TAE. Still am. Most folks, even here, don’t quite grasp the extent of the changes happening; or how fast it is. We wake up, and the neighbor is still mowing his lawn; it all looks normal.
But. I don’t think so.
Things are still comfortable for us here, but we’re painfully aware that that’s a position predicated completely on my husband keeping his job. He works for General Dynamics (high-tech defense contractor), which currently is booming for obvious reasons, but if defense spending decreases after the election, as we both hope it will…well, he’s certainly not the most senior person there. Since I’m a stay-at-home mom to our one year old, that would leave us high and dry with substantial mortgage payments. And if we lose our house, we lose all the preparedness work we’ve done, and a home we really do love. The neighbors are just as precarious…again, single earner, in their case two kids, and his job is in the building industry, but of course they’re blissfully oblivious and still buying the kids $400 toys on credit. So, yeah, things could come toppling down pretty fast.
On a more regional scale, the only things I’ve noticed in my area are a large number of yard sales (but this is yardsale country) and a fair number of for sale signs. A lot of that might be increased sensitivity on my part, though.
Oh, and our “reliable family car” keeps needing to go to the shop about every two months (another $225 today), so if anything goes really wrong there, that’s the sort of thing that drains a bank account in a right hurry.
Basically I guess what I’m saying is that even as a solidly middle-class family we are keenly aware that there’s little between us and the precipice.
Here on Canada’s east coast we got hit with two disasters relatively close together about five years ago, so people started taking preparation seriously (each disaster resulted in a week or more without power for much of the population… one of them was in winter). Houses aren’t selling very well and people are starting to drop prices, but our economy is in pretty good shape.
Our debts are not crippling and both of us have well paying jobs right now. I am in the midst of developing my antidote to the bunkers and guns sets view of survival (making myself as fit and as mentally flexible as possible so that if the survival situation doesn’t call for bunkers and guns I am not too put out… plus I’m scared of guns)/
Where I work is another matter. The company I am on contract too is in great shape (they produce technology used on 97% of the land based oil rigs in Canada) but the company I actually work for has a number of clients. The largest of those clients is Morgan Stanley. Many people I pass in the halls seem very stressed right now and while odds are that the company I work for can survive the death of Morgan Stanley if it happens, a lot of our clients are in the financial services sector (we had contracts with both Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers) so who knows how many more hits we can take.
Well, we’re taking more money out of an IRA – will have to pay penalties – to live on today. Food we have, but no money for rent or utilities.
Son commutes to U of MD, so I read the student paper. Hiring freeze there, and there are complaints that the students on the food plan (which I admit I don’t understand because I don’t have to) which cost more this year are finding that their ‘points’ aren’t going as far. Son has scholarships and is the only grandchild of a Jewish grandmother, and eats with us at breakfast and dinner and packs his lunch from home, so my husband and I only pay for his books and gas costs. With his ADD, efforts to work while he’s in school haven’t turned out well, he’ll see how he combines volunteering with Engineers Without Borders with school before he tries a job again.
Our home based business just delivered custom software to a client in Russia, who apparently has venture capital. Or had it – the stock market there has closed at least temporarily … he says that his money guy is in Greece and won’t be back to wire us our money for 2 – 3 weeks … I responded with hysterical laughter. They owe us over $21K.
OTOH, the small IRAs I control are doing well. But I looked towards coming collapse and invested mostly in puts, a option that goes up as stocks go down. I don’t consider my option investing the most ethical type of investing (options don’t produce a product at all, and I consider ‘production of goods’ more ethical) but I can do this with little money.
Fern
We have and make more money than I ever thought I’d see, both of us in fields that do better in recessions (me in education, him in open-source software for large corporations). We have enough in savings to live on for two years, barring health disasters. We have all the large equipment we need, including bikes & bike trailers, room for up to 3 roomates if we wanted to be landlords again, a rising rental market, and a former roomate who would move back in with us if we asked, who has a good job & always paid his rent on time when he lived here before.
But my neighborhood is unraveling. The city was having budget issues before – closing libraries, closing schools, cutting back in the parks, raising bus fares. I worry that if we have a snowy winter they won’t plow as much (last year they declared no overtime for snowplow drivers, and the car commuters had some ugly mornings.) Foreclosures and small business closings started here two years ago when ICE started leaning on the immigrant communities; we’ve had one foreclosure on every block this summer, near as I can tell. One of the first signs of recession here was less crowding -young men from Mexico and Central America used to come up here for work in such numbers that they lived in tents in people’s yards and all the volleyball courts were full every night. Not this summer. Our renter neighbor across the alley, who’s lived there for more than a decade, is moving away to live with her parents. Someone came down our block and stole all the kids bikes from back yards, and we have old immigrant women picking through the trash and picking up aluminum cans every day.
I’m not worried about us, but I worry about the people around us and I feel like I’m not connected enough these days that people would ask us for help if they needed it, which makes me feel bad on a moral level and makes me think that, if something bad *did* happen to us, I don’t have the connections I need to make it.
Our area seems fairly stable (Dallas-Fort Worth) for now. I have seen some small tightenings of belts, but nothing serious. I’ve noticed far more motorcycles on the road these days (no bikes, though – very un-bike-friendly). By and large, most people are still in love with their trucks and SUVs here. I do know that a lot of people on the Fort Worth side are being raped by gas drilling in their front yards. I work for a catering company, and we’ve seen a bit of decline in business, but not a substantial one. Mostly the declines have been in business catering – companies aren’t spending the money on that sort of thing as much. Individuals, however, are still having weddings, Bar and Bat Mitzvahs, Quinceaneras, etc. No real declines in that type of business.
As for us, we’re doing just about as well as we ever were. Our jobs are as stable as they can be, we have almost no debt, and even our mortgage and our one car note will both be paid off next year. Gas prices hurt, and we just moved and are working through those expenses, but all in all, I don’t feel like we’re struggling. My retirement keeps being whittled away, but in my mind that money is already gone, so if I end up with anything I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
My family is another matter. They also live here and are all in dire straits. My sister is unemployed and trying to support herself on her own. My father is a custom homebuilder and hasn’t sold a house in a year and a half. He’s sitting on five or six houses now that aren’t moving – plus, people are breaking into them and stealing copper pipe and wire and such. My mother, a baby boomer, took ALL of the money her parents left her (which was substantial) and opened a cafe with it, rather than saving it for her own retirement/elder care. She put all the money into the build out and was basically broke on opening day. Of course it’s not turning a profit yet (if it ever will), so she seems on a fast track to financial ruin. We tried to warn her, but what more can you do? My brother is going to be fine, but he’s always lived on an extreme shoestring by choice. The worst thing about all this is that I know if we offered them help they’d refuse it. Either out of pride, or because they don’t realize just how bad things are. DH’s family is struggling with money a bit too, but they’re a few states away, so it’s hard to tell if it’s any worse now than it has ever been for them.
I thought I was doing fine, until I read everyone’s comments.
We have some debt to include student loans, mortgage, one vehicle (can’t be sold… it’s a truck) and some credit cards. We’ve made huge inroads but now I’m not so sure how survivable we really are.
My job is iffy (telvision) but hopefully crime will continue so husband is fine for a while. (yeah. Bad attitude. I know. And somewhat tongue in cheek. But more callouts last night)
Garden wouldn’t support us, and no greenhouse. In the suburbs, so no livestock.
That said, it is what it is. I suppose I’ll survive because I’ll do what I need to do to make sure that happens. But I am a bit disappointed at the “no home-scale tactical nukes”.
We are doing ok, slowly reducing our debt and becoming accustomed to living on one salary, building up our stores, learning to garden and preserve food, building up the woodpile, etc. But even here in the relatively sheltered tarsands-based economy of Alberta, things are changing. Housing prices have decreased significantly and there are tens of thousands of houses on the market that hardly anyone is buying. Just this morning there was an announcement that a major tarsands oil upgrader project may be delayed or canceled due to huge cost overruns. This makes me personally very happy, because it means that some of the Florida-sized boreal forest/wetland area might be spared, and there may be less industrial load on the river, and less farmland stripped and made into instant housing developments.
The banks here are run differently and so there are no immediate concerns about them going bankrupt or requiring bail-outs, but we’re trying to get our assets out of them anyway. Food banks are having problems meeting demand and there is virtually no safe and affordable housing for low income people. There are more and more homeless people and the jails are overfull. In short, things are more chaotic and unstable and the unpredictability is making people nervous, because this has been a place of predictability for many, many decades.
For the person who steps off the curb
at the wrong time
Unlooking and unheeding
The world ends that day, that minute
And never seeing their loved ones again
Nor their loved ones seeing them
Multiple worlds end that day
-Lance
Ok, so much for my little riff in response to Ms. Bishop (I LOVE her poem, never hear it before, but it is wonderful..thanks Sharon!)
Well I lost my house some years ago, several jobs and careers, many friends, and things I cannot (will not) speak of in a public forum yet more dear than all those other things. I laugh and joke with my good friend and traveling companion Hugh Briss. The older you get, the more you realize it is all illusion anyways.
I have two things that help me in this Plain of Megiddo, of scorpions and snakes, that is my dwelling place…the writings of Qoheleth of Ecclesiastes (for all is vanity ultimately, yet do not despair but enjoy the DAY (the hour and minute and breath) that God has given you! Some people see Ecclesiastes as a downer, but I see it as really very joyful and an antidote to Hugh Briss
And my alltime favorite, an Old Inuit song:
I think over again
My small adventures, my fears.
The small ones that seemed so big,
For all the vital things I had to get and to reach.
And yet there is only one great thing, the only thing:
To live to see the great day that dawns,
And the light that fills the world.
Just wrote a long post, then hit a wrong key and it disappeared.
Suffice it to say that things are about the same here. We are watching things deteriorate with some dismay. We always knew it was coming but thought we had “a few more years.” Now we’re not so sure.
We are on Social Security and expect that will continue so long as the government is functioning. House and car/truck are paid for, we have a fair amount of stuff stored and few expenses. Unsure of the banks. Keeping savings in local banks and some cash hidden away.
It is one thing to speculate about things falling apart, quite another to watch it unfold.
(Just found my original post–it wasn’t gone–just hidden. It follows below.)
As I wrote at the end of the book club thread, here in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky we had a serious windstorm associated with the passage of hurricane Ike last weekend. Hundreds of thousands were-many still are-without power, schools closed, roads were blocked, gas stations ran out of gas. We were OK because of preparations made for emergencies, but in the city hundreds were flocking to food banks and emergency feeding stations because their food spoiled in the refrigerator or they couldn’t get to the store.
As to the general perceived situation, my partner has four adult kids in various areas of the country and all are experiencing money/job insecurities. Jobs are disappearing and replacements hard to find, especially for those in retail or manufacturing.
No homes for sale in our neighborhood yet-these are all established clans-but many sprouting in the area-many of those vacant as former residents were foreclosed upon.
We are on social security and feel that will continue so long as the government is functioning. We are less sure of the banks and have savings spread among 3 local banks (all of which were recently acquired by out of state banks), so we have no idea any more of their financial situation. We have a pretty large sum of money in cash, well hidden. The house, car and truck are paid for, but old.
We are watching the energy-financial-foreign relations situations deteriorate with dismay. Not unexpected, but always thought it would be safely “a few years away” yet.
Frankly, I’m in a head-spinning state.
I live in a little enclave of older houses, the core of a small town that had pricely developements build around it, and it is communting distance of both NY and Philly. While the larger, newer houses are not selling as well as they once were, the little houses in my neighborhood, in walking distance to the train station, are moving quickly, and for good prices.
For the first time in my life (I must have been one the very last people to go to college on a full schoolarship) except for the now paid off house, I’ve taken on debt for the “new-to-be-car.” Right now, as long as I keep getting freelance publishing work, I can make the payments. Once that dries up (and I can’t see mid-list books lasting for ever), I can either cut into charitable giving or my older daughter’s music lessons. (The young daughter’s went already to pay for extra theapy, which is going very well.) I have to confess, it’s a hard, hard choice. Already, while the planned for giving continues, there is less of the pick up a package of socks for the soup kitchen in the dollar store because I have a little money left.
My hopes to be transfered to a banch in walking distance have not been realized, but I may be moved to one where I could car-pool at least 2x a week. That’s a blow to my hopes to drop my driving to complience with the 90% reduction, and to my planned gas budget. I realize it must sound very petty to people who must chose between eat and heat (or have lost both options), but the one place I’m spending any extra money is music lessons, and the thought of ended or cutting back on those is very painful. I think it’s partly becuase that means I’m starting to hit rock.
As far as the schools are concerned, I’m already well into my consumer goods budget for next year — the requred tee-shirts for band, sports, etc. cost a lot more than last year ($15.00 each, up from 7 or 8, or free if you were on the lunch program–I hope they still are free), they are charging for a student director (as opposed to a class list), and they want a lot more supplies sent in from home — tissues and wipes and things like that.
The district is talking to 2 other districts about combining bus routes, esp. for the Special Services district that serves the whole county — an idea that should have been impliented years ago, IMO. There is talk of fewer class trips, or charging more for them.
The soup kitchen in Trenton is swamped and desperate for cash, and has woken up to the fact that this isn’t a temporary blip, but may be the face of things to come.
As I talk to people in the neighborhood, I hear more and more stories about their relatives with one or both parents out of work, nieces and nephews coming home, etc. though as far as I know the only doubling up in the neighborhood occured a couple of years ago, when a widower across the street invited his then out of work much younger half-sister to move in, and even though she as work now, they are both happy with the arrangement and expect it to continue.
My own family — oh yikes. My oldest brother has started pharmacy school and is hoping to hang on in NV 3 more years to get the degree before coming back to NJ. He and his SO have been together 24 years, and have always lived where she wants to as my brother is pretty easy going, but he told me that this time she’s going to have to put with with moving out East (which she claims is a phoney place to live) because he doesn’t see the South West as being tenable for them.
Middle brother’s business, doing museum restorations, is struggling. Big house, lots of debts, unable to see that buying stuff you don’t need isn’t saving money even if you get 2 for the price of 1 — I’m frightened reality is going to hit hard. They just brought a new SUV because they are so cheap right now.
Youngest brother, the one I gave my old car to so he’d have a way to get to work — wife out of work, step daughter who lives with them, out of work (both quit at the being of the summer because they wanted some time off, planning to start job hunting in the fall), more debts. My parents pay for their housing all ready. I don’t see how they can hang on much longer, esp. as his job is in the food industry.
My parents are worried, too. They’ve spent their safety net more or less down, and say they can manage only one more disaster — theirs or their children’s. Both a dependent on medication, as is my younger brother and my younger daughter — no meds, your dead sort of depended — some would go quickly, so slowly.
I still have my IRA, but no other real savings (for the first time as an adult no real safety cushion) and the IRA is loosing value. I may yet have to turn it into cash — and I know I’m very lucky to have it.
What I do have is a fantastic housemate, parents close by, a paid for house, a pest-proof garden that is prodcuing the first of the fall beans(!), good neighbors, and a plan for almost everthing (haha) except for getting a composting toilet.
I’m seeing more requests for bikes, moving boxes and bed and other bedroom furnishing on Freecycle, as well as children’s clothing, and shoes — people never used to ask for shoes.
Around me I see very few people who are worried about the long term — most people think we are in for a short term series of financial hardships that will someone work out.
Those who feel, like me, that we are in for something much hard and longer and stranger, shared my deer in the headlights feeling. It’s very strange to been waiting for the final shoe to drop, knowing it could be months away, and that we may never know when it drops or what it was.
We aren’t even looking at our 401K statements anymore. In fact, we stopped contributing so we could us the money instead – right now – to get rid of our monster credit card debt. Ugh!
We cashed out my son’s college fund and used it right away after it lost more than $3000 – and that was last spring! So he’ll have no debt from this first year, but there’s no reserve waiting for him.
We have no savings right now and hope to have our debt gone in 2 years. Our health care bills are astronimical – and we have good insurance.
Just can’t seem to keep ahead of it all…
Now, it’s getting REAL personal! I have an IRA–not very large–that’s lost money I know over the last year. I have a retirement from the state and they are known for being real hardnoses about keeping a tight reign on the retirement fund. That’s what I live on. I hae some savings but then will that CU last well throughout this whole thing. Other event have happened to people I know in the last few months.
–Our state and local governments have had real cutbacks in personnel and some service and our paper is talking about the local city cutting back more before christmas–their fiscal year is July to July.
–Talked to Richard, mom’s broker, he expects housing won’t recover for at least two years probably longer; the stockmarket will probably or could go down to about 9000, He is more sure that it will go down to that than not. He said we’re in for a rough ride and is confirming everything I expected. He moved a fund of my mom’s money into the money market, that means it’s in cash right now. He’s been a busy man the past couple of days! I’ll bet!
News from friends about other they know losing in this market:
–Linda’s music friends include a lot of real estate people on the east Coast, Northern Virginia and Fredericksburg, VA. One custom home builder has gone under in the past year, all their personal money was used to try to save it but they lost it all. I don’t know if that means they lost their own home or not.
–A respected yoga teacher of many years came to our studio to do a workshop this past weekend. I couldn’t go but my friend Barb said that she has lost a lot or weight and her beautiful head of hair is much thinner. Her husband and she have both been ill the past two years, they are not young, and lost their several investment properties they had near where they live in Sedona. I was very sad to hear about her and her husband. She’s travelling and teaching again because she needs the money. She’s a wonderful teacher and I hope to see her again.
–D. in Tennessee said her husband has lost his job and they don’t know if they’ll have to move again or not.
–I’m waiting to hear about the enrollment in our health plan in the next month or so. How much will it increase?? :/
cheers,
shamba
We are doing well financially. We just sold our house after 5 months on the market and are moving to a farm in GA at the beginning of November. I’ll admit to feeling panic at times that we won’t get moved in time. Or that our buyers will back out because of all that is going on financially. Things just need to hang on for 6 weeks….
We’re a bit on the stressed out and worried side of things. Not because we have much in the way of investments (we don’t), but because it’s unnerving to watch the economy of one’s nation nosedive into a major depression, while the environment is out of whack, and wars are being fought over dwindling resources, and basic costs of living are increasing seemingly exponentially. Getting a raise at work doesn’t even mean maintaining the same level of earning power. It’s scary, and unstable, and we’re oh-so-very-thankful that we bought a house we could afford, and that we weren’t foolish enough to buy one in an area with covenants that don’t allow things like gardens and clotheslines.
My great-grandmother dropped out of school in her teens to help her dad raise her siblings when her mother died. Her brother wrote about electricity coming to their part of the city, and about the ‘honey dippers’ who came around in the night to scoop out peoples’ “out houses” by the alleys. She survived the Great Depression, and raised a family of her own. Through it all, she always managed to grow a garden, to keep people clothed and fed, and found the Joy in living.
I look to them, even though they’ve long since passed away, for inspiration.
People CAN survive. They mostly always have. They just need reminded of it. A good mantra for times like these:
” I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain. ”
-from Frank Herbert’s “Dune”
Here in Northern Arizona the community I live in hasn’t seen much of a change; we purchased a home in an area by necessity as DH was required to live in the fire district in order to work for them. Neither of us work anywhere near our community any more, but our mortgage is so incredibly reasonable in comparison to anyone else’s we know that even with rising gas prices we still have no thoughts of selling at this time (well, hubby asks every week or so if we can move somewhere else — basically anywhere else). Not to mention the fact that we couldn’t sell our house for anywhere near what we still owe.
However….I went to Prescott to go grocery shopping yesterday and passed a building with an enormous sign hanging from it advertising a foreclosure bus tour. I was sickened. I mean, we have had a ridiculous buildout here in the last decade, and I knew from the water supply point alone, that it was unsustainable, but I really thought we here in AZ were a little more insulated from the crisis than we apparently are.
Chino Valley is considering (if they haven’t already) passing an ordinance preventing people from planting gardens due to the water shortage…I mean, come on! How about mandating the placement of water harvesting equipment? How do they think people are going to feed themselves? And why aren’t the farmers under the same sorts of proscriptions? I feel lucky because I live near a creek that flows year round…I can haul water if need be, and sterilize it before use.
I work in Phoenix at a large community hospital in the ED. We are seeing more and more psych patients, and we end up holding them for days because there simply aren’t enough beds in the entire Valley to house the psych patients who need them. We are getting more and more people who don’t have health insurance who are using the ED as an urgent care or doctor’s office, and we are getting more sicker people who also stay in our ED for days because there aren’t enough inpatient beds to house them. Our boss dropped the news that we are going to be facing budget cuts next year which means staffing cuts — which means that the nurses that are left are going to be even more unhappy and probably try to go elsewhere. It’s a very stressful environment, and I keep telling my coworkers it’s only going to get worse.
Also regarding my job, I am hearing from coworkers that spouses have lost jobs and aren’t able to find new ones; one bought in a newer, fairly upwardly mobile area that is now foreclosure/renter heavy and has the drug/burglary problems that go with those. They can’t get out because they can’t sell, but they are sitting on a property that is losing value by the minute almost.
My son worked at a car dealership and was let go last month; I am not sure whether he’s found a new job yet — he won’t ask for help so he won’t call unless he’s OK. My oldest son lives near Oakland and is struggling; he and his wife are trying to move to a smaller place and get a room mate to share the bills with. I have told both of them they are welcome to move back home if need be; we have extra bedrooms, beds, all the stuff they would need if it came down to it. DH just lost one of his two jobs last Friday, and his other job isn’t calling for work like they did at this time last year.
I am expanding my garden (over hubby’s protests) even more this fall, am planning to build a couple of cold frames for veggies/salads over the winter, and plan to plant even earlier this year for summer harvests. I got chickens for eggs. I changed my withholding at work so I could take home extra pay which is paying for home maintenance, repairs, and improvements that will help make us more energy efficient. I prebought a year’s worth of propane, and if I am careful with our use, it may last a lot longer than that. We changed our stove from one with a pilot light to one with electronic ignition. I have shopped the thrift stores for real wool sweaters, and long underwear, and plan to heat myself rather than the house this winter (DH is fine with that, he prefers living in the temperature range of a cave anyway). I have put up jellies, jams, vegetables, and stocked up on beans and rice. We purchased a Prius before gas went through the roof and while our payments are a little steep, they are still cheaper than what we were paying in gas for our van before. My car is paid off. I am paying double payments on our credit cards, and my job will pay my student loan payments in return for a time commitment which I haven’t taken them up on but I think I will try to do. For as long as they will let me, that is.
I am truly worried for my job but I know that I can get another one — nurses are in short supply still, and there’s still a huge need for them.
In short, things are getting a little bad here in the Grand Canyon state as well but I still think we have it really pretty good compared to other places in the nation.
How are we doing here? Hard to say. Our town is for crap, but then that’s not new. It’s a very poor town, always has been. In fact, it’s experiencing something of a renaissance right now, as folks are beginning to find value in doing things *here* rather than elsewhere.
In our own lives, we toodle along. We’re much like Greenpa, watching the markets with a sick sort of fascination, paired with a knot in the stomach. Financially right now, we are fine. My husband’s job and my own continue until the end of the academic year, and I believe he gets paid into sometime during the summer. After that, it will either go very well or very badly indeed. If we have to move–I really can’t imagine how that will go, but I don’t believe it will be good. We have no consumer debt, but we carry both a mortgage and student loans nearly the same size. We can’t get out from under those any time soon. We won’t be able to sell our house for enough to pay off the mortgage, mostly because *nothing* is selling around here. I guess time will tell. Truth be told? I prefer not to think about it. I’ll just buy my massive quantities of wheat and can things. I work and plan, all the while trying hard not to think about why I’m doing all these things.
I feel that, in my own reality, this is the elephant in the living room. Part of this is my own fault, I think. Sometimes a person just has to blunder into a situation and discover that I’m not on the same page as someone else. Mostly, I just keep quiet, though I have my copy of “What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire” waiting for anyone who might be getting an inkling.
I live in a small city, and I only moved here a couple of months ago from Albany. Partly because I feel Troy is better positioned in lots of ways. Still, as I share the nabe with RPI and Sage students, I’m not sure what the reality is. There is a strong communal feeling here, and Troy is the home of Uncle Sam (the icon was “born” here, as was “Twas the Night Before Christmas”). This is just intuitive, but also on a practical level it’s easier to get to know people in a small city like Troy, r/t a larger one like Albany.
My partner seems to be slowly awakening to what I’ve been sensing these last few years, and as I sit here typing this, I’m thinking about our most recent conversation. He was angry with me about something that I do, probably too much. And he’s right. Still, I wonder if there isn’t an underlying anxiety re: all this stuff we’re not talking about? That reality which sites like this openly ponder. The thing that I’m being called to question on is that I don’t spend enough time in the real world–I do spend quite a bit of time with guides in a trance state. And I want to spend more time doing things that matter to me, like home repair and maintenance. Performing my body-percussion music at open mics and really getting to know my neighbors. I’m frustrated because my life is set up for … whatever it’s set up for as it revolves around $900/mo in debt repayment.
(Yet I have a talent for trance, and with the way things are, can I really be blamed if I don’t want to take a journey to other realms?)
It feels plainly surreal, to be honest. As far as this economic sitch goes, I’m not really sure what to make of it regarding my own position. I work in a law firm that has offices in several locations–Syracuse, Albany, Rochester, Buffalo, NYC. It’s positioned as a regional firm. Not like the white-shoe firms in NYC, Beijing, Abu Dhabi, Sao Paolo–and yes, the last firm I worked for in NYC had offices in all those places as well as London, Paris, Duesseldorf, SF. (Yeah, Duesseldorf! And Berlin and several other places as well.) So, b/c it’s regional I think it might have a bright future, at least as far as all this goes. And it has a lot of different practice areas that will probably be all right.
Have no idea whether I’ll be able to afford heat and electric over the winter, but my priorities are rent/utilities, food, and then whatever else I have left over can go to debts.
Frostwolf, Troy, New York
Susan, wonder if they’ll put those same limits on water in swimming pools. GRRRRRRRR.
Well, here in NJ another shoe is dropped. Looks as if the 4 branches of Trenton Free Public Library are to close — keeping the main branch open, for now.
One of my great-grandfathers used to live on lane out outskirts of a small farming village. On the map it was call Night Soil Lane, but everyone called it Shit Alley.
MEA
I have a feeling of impending disaster, the same angst I felt in the early 1970s in college while learning/contemplating the enormous problems facing our times. Worse now because I’m older and I get an uncomfortable feeling in my stomach which I didn’t get then. I recaptured that exact angst feeling and memories the other day when my husband had AOL radio on and they were playing Beethoven’s Moonlight Sonata — a gift I received from a girlfriend in college. I listened to it again and again as a freshman …
Collapse of different systems — financial, climate, political, etc. — is unraveling at a more accelerated rate than I’ve recently anticipated. In reality, I’ve been expecting the collapse of our civilization since the 1970s. My eyes were opened then by Schumacher’s “Small is Beautiful,” Spengler’s “The Decline of the West,” “Limits to Growth”, etc.
I’m scared for my family and myself and for all the sentient beings in our planet. I know the suffering will be intense in the coming years. Most of us would like to see the suffering of others alleviated.
On a personal level, I’m grateful that my family is debt free due to our frugal/simple lifestyle (plus luck) and that my husband has a good job for now. Our county has experienced shortfalls and positions have been frozen for more than a year. Thirty-five part-time library employees and many more throughout the county were layed off a few months ago. As you know, Florida is experiencing an excess of foreclosures along with a precipitous decline in home prices which cuts county revenues. Fort Myers (north of us) is the number 2 place in the US for foreclosures.
There are currently four houses (out of 25) foreclosing in our exurbia/rural mile and a half long dead-end street. The young families who lived there bought their houses at the height of the housing bubble and lost their jobs recently. I don’t think they had a decadent bourgeois lifestyle.
I worry about the safety of our savings account at Bank of America (AKA, Lynch of America!). I also feel guilty and complicitous to have money in such a corrupt institution. I’ll be glad when our money is used up. We’ll be using our hard earned cash to buy land and build a tiny house in VT soon. No bank is safe (see The Automatic Earth site). The government could institute restrictions on account withdrawals anytime, especially if a run on banks start. FDIC with their $50 billion is a joke.
Well, that’s all for now.
Peace!
In my world, it is about gas and food prices so far. Husband is still working (construction) however, we got cut off of medical insurance, as it turned out, because his boss/owner of the company, hadn’t paid into the union account for several months. Why? Because developers, who have pocketed the money from the banks, have not paid him in 6 months. He had enough to pay his workers and he is struggling to stay afloat.
We managed to get our children covered by medical through the state but not us. We are resigned to having to do without a doctor until our insurance is reinstated. this is big since both of us need medical care for back injuries.
We have a friend who lost her job and who has 3 kids. She got around 100 dollars a month of food stamps but was denied medical insurance for them, despite the fact that two are bipolar and one has an ulcer. Another friend got cut off of food stamps because her son now makes 60 dollars a week working at a movie theater.
So far, we are witnessing cuts in welfare but also in schools. Since the cuts in the high schools are a definite thing, they are passing on the cost of things to parents. So much for public schooling.
I can see things eroding at a slow and steady pace here. These are just small examples. I keep a watch out everyday. I am getting more and more prepared while we have the money, the car and some strength to do the things we must do. I don’t think in terms of when the world will end. I have said this a thousand times. I ended my old world myself a while ago by changing the way I see the future and what I do with the present in terms of being prepared.
I moved back to my parents in Miami. Its not really all that bad, I’m still in my second year of college, and I didn’t go in debt to pay for it, so personally, I’m ok. I know that there are two mortgages my parents are paying for but I don’t know about any other debts hanging in the shadows. I’ve been seeing a lot of motorcycles and scooters, though there is still quite a number of SUVs around. I cycle to school, and its alright since the vast networks of sidewalks around here are mostly devoid of pedestrians. I had a shock recently when I went to the mall, it was very empty compared to a few months ago, it reminded me of Orlov when he wrote of the quietness of Leningrad in the summer of 1990. At the moment, I have my money in an financially iffy bank, and I’m walking that bank and learning about the fascinating realm of Mattress based economics
I’m watching the deflating balloon of the economy with great intensity, ’cause I don’t want to get smacked by it 
I really ought to visit the rest of the family and see what they’re up to.
I keep hearing, in my head, that assertion that one can determine the health of an economy by the roads. A neighboring community has just repaved their portion of Route One, and they are rehabbing the sidewalks, as well.
Things here seem to be going along pretty much business as usual, but the economy, increases in fuel prices, increasing food costs, decreasing municipal budgets for things like school, and other related topics are oft discussed – and openly with allusions to Peak Oil (although that exact phrase is seldom used). These topics are actually even trumping political rhetoric that would normally be on everyone’s lips.
I’m watching the news with interest, and I’m always aware that but for the grace … it could be me, which is why I’m making preparations, and if we end up untouched or just slightly inconvenienced, all of the things I’ve done for my family will enable me to use our cash to help someone else.
Where I am in the Midwest, property values have hardly dropped (yet). However, rent is going through the roof; I’ve seen two average apartments near my work for $800 a month (and pets forbidden), which is about equal to my mortgage minus taxes and insurance. Apartments like that were $600 not long ago. I don’t know how a single person can afford housing now. I work for a nonprofit and we’ve been told to plan for budget cuts next year, and I really wonder how bad things have to get, for how long, before I get laid off. I’ve been paying extra money on the mortgage when possible, so would be pretty angry if I lost the house.
One of our major shopping malls, which has one complete wing with almost no stores left and the AC shut off, reportedly plans to rip off the roof and convert itself into an open-air mall. Two versions of the story about why: to save on utilities or to reduce gang activity which is supposedly drawn to closed malls. Don’t know which is true, but gang activity here has reached the point of packs of 30-40 “youths” running amok, gang-stomping people at bus stops just to take their wallets and terrorizing people on sidewalks in the business district. This is already a high-crime city by American standards but I suspect it could get much worse in a depression; I’ve seen Pretoria. We also have infrastructure problems: we are told to expect water/sewer bills to triple because EPA requires improvement of sewers in next few years. Coincidentally, Midwestern utilities are saying among themselves that heating/utility costs will triple.
I had a table-sized garden this year, plus some medicinal plants, but the former was not very successful. I plan to learn from my mistakes next year (land mines for the ****ing rabbits!) and put in a couple of dwarf fruit trees. Our heating bills have been about 50% of previous owner’s costs, but I hope to make further improvements this year. We pretend to be spending $60/week on food and gas, but this does not include cheats. I am not stockpiling a lot of stuff because (a) I feel like we have excess stuff already, and (b) if I lose my job, I will not have time to use up that hoard before I am kicked out of my house, and what will I do with it then? But there are certainly particular things that I could stand to buy if funds permitted. Unfortunately, my beloved spouse is one of those people who expects to die five minutes before the party is over, and he rarely shows much enthusiasm for preparedness. (Of course, having suffered through my embarrassing little Y2K Tuna Stockpile episode probably colored his viewpoint.)
I rarely post but this is too good to pass up.
I am doing rather well. Like one of the other posters I put some money into a reverse fund last fall and it has (obviously) done very well. I intend to roll out of it when the Dow hits the 9,000s. I think there will likely be more down side but I don’t want to get too greedy. But that money is not accessible until I retire (or I take a huge hit on it) so that may not be terribly important to where I am now.
Currently I have a decent job and get paid a decent wage. But my wife and I separated last month. Get this – one reason we separated was her anger over us not owning a house. She has been wanting to buy a house for the last two years. She has good business connections and would keep telling me that “so-and-so” says that now is the time to buy! There is no housing bubble! But I refused. Now she is arguing that she is hearing “this is the bottom, its time to buy!” My standard response at this point is to ask her what the track record of the people she is listening to is.
Anyway, the only debt I have is student loans. I do not own a house. I own some gold and silver (physical) and keep a couple thousand on hand in case of bank failure. I am invested in a reverse fund. But I do not have any investment or ownership that would provide necessities such as food. What I would love to find is an investment opportunity where I could be a minority owner of an organic farm that pays dividends in produce.
I probably saved my wife from complete disaster as she will likely buy her house in the spring of 2009 which might be close to a market bottom (it might not be too but it will be *closer*). I’m worried about my brother who has a degree in wine making and is living in Portland, Oregon but is having trouble finding his first job in the industry. I have a number of friends who are marginally or unemployed. All of them are *just* getting by on food banks, loans from families and under the table work.
The next big leg down will likely be October. I might have an opportunity for contract work in Baghdad Iraq about that time. If given the opportunity I don’t think I will be able to pass it up. First, someone has got to do something to help end that fiasco and it might as well be me. Second, the money would wipe out the last of my debt and might provide enough cash and experience to set me up for the next slide down. I worry about friends and family who can’t take another hit. I worry about friends and family who can take the hit (financially) but may not be able to take it mentally.
But in the long run I have faith that there is a grand design. That design has no particular disposition towards me, America, or even humanity. But knowing there is a pattern give me some comfort.
AV
Western NC reporting in here.
With regard to my small town, life seems to be going on so far with minimal impact. We have lots of retirees here (double the US average, proportionally), most of them living on more than just Social Security, so as long as that cash flow continues (a very big and uncertain IF), that sets a floor under the local economy. Since most of the tourism (the other big economic prop) is from people not much more than a day’s drive away, we have so far seen that decline only a little. I am thinking that a lot of affluent people that would have hopped on a plane for an international vacation are instead vacationing downscale and closer to home, thus offsetting some of the formerly middle class folks who used to come here but now can’t afford to do so. Obviously, this game of musical chairs can’t go on very long, and then the local economy really starts hurting. I’m very worried about our lack of passenger rail access. We used to have it decades ago, and must get it again before gasoline becomes so expensive or unavailable that all travel to and from the mountains becomes impossible. So far, though, hardly anyone except me seems to really see the urgency of this.
WNC has one of the largest and most active concentrations of folk artisans and craftspersons in the US, which is one of the things that draws the tourists. My wife has gotten into a small sideline making handmade paper and using it to produce handmade greeting cards for sale at one of the local shops. I’m pretty much all thumbs and not very artistic, but I need to be thinking about some sort of craft I can get into to produce something for sale or barter once the income from the job goes away due to retirement or worse. I am assuming that once the tourists are no more, neither will imports from China. Once that happens, our local craftspersons will have to stop tarting up their stuff for the tourist trade and instead just produce useful household goods just like they did a century ago. WNC is pretty well positioned for that aspect of localization.
As for housing, I’m not seeing much evidence of foreclosures yet, although the number of houses on the market has been increasing. What has crashed is new construction. Several big developments have been canceled. There just isn’t the demand even for modest middle class vacation homes, and people that want to retire here can’t sell their present home for enough money to swing the move. Thus, it is looking that it will pretty much just be those of us already here that see things on out, except for the lucky few that can still afford buy in.
I am hearing that the local food bank and relief charity has more clients than ever. One thing that our town is doing to help with that is to dedicate half of the community garden plots for food bank production. Students from a local college provide volunteer labor for course credit to plant and tend the plots. This is a model that more communities should copy.
Our town’s farmer’s market is growing by leaps and bounds. More sellers, more buyers, and more things for sale than I’ve ever seen before.
With regard to myself, I’ve already been in a giving up and letting go mode for some time. The latest and biggest thing has been to give up driving to work and to walk instead. It is a little less than 2 miles each way. I did it mainly for the exercise, but also to lessen our dependence upon and vulnerability to gasoline supplies, and also to keep our old cars running for as long as possible by minimizing the miles that we put on them. What I have gained in physical and mental health by walking so much each day more than offsets the “sacrifice” of motorized transport.
I’ve been having to pay off debts incurred from a failed business venture, and am on track to have those paid off in less than three years now. I wish I didn’t have that burden and could be moving on to liquidating our mortgage instead, but that will just have to wait until we’ve gotten these business debts paid off. My wife and I both have jobs that are somewhat more secure than most, so hopefully our luck and income will hold up for a while yet. One good thing is that is has forced us to become really frugal and to give up a lot of things that other people seem to feel are essentials. Good practice, I guess. I am assuming that by the time we’ve paid off the business debt and the mortgage, there won’t be enough income to expand our lifestyle to any extent anyway, so we might as well get used to it.
Gardening was a mixed bag this year. I had great success with my peaches and my beet and winter squash crop, but didn’t do very well with many other crops due to the drought. This was my first year to try growing vegetables in containers on our deck (which is the sunniest part of our property, and easiest to water daily), and had fairly good results, but also learned that I’ll need to try some different varieties next year. I’m going to need to cut down a couple of trees in order to get some sunlight on my garden, and plan to break some new ground to expand this fall. Even with that, I’ve decided that I’m going to have to just focus on those crops that grow well for me, and rely on our town’s farmer’s market for most of the rest.
My first beehive was a great success; I harvested 2 gallons of honey! I’m planning to add one or two more hives next year, and with any luck might get to the point that I actually have a little surplus to sell or barter. Once I’ve got the apiary up to full production, my next goal will be to get a rabbitry started. While I live in town, it is a small town with pretty lax zoning enforcement, so those at least should be no problem. Chickens would come next, but they are still busting people for roosters. A place I walk by every day was busted for having a rooster a few months ago. People just are not that hard up yet to force a general change of attitudes and zoning codes.
I used some of my stimulus check to put storm doors in, and will be doing more caulking and other weatherizing this fall. I also hope to start fabricating insulating shutters & shades for the windows. We really tried to get by without air conditioning as much as possible, and replaced a dehumidifier with an energy star model; as a result, our electricity use was down about 40-50% from last summer. I’ve got lots of downed limbs to saw and several cords of wood stored up, and hope to use the woodstove a lot more this winter than we have in the past. I’m still hoping that I can get solar water and space heating panels up within the next few years, but that is hard to swing when I’ve still got that business debt to pay off.
Hummingbird said:
“We have a pretty large sum of money in cash, well hidden.”
GOOD IDEA!!
Fairbanks Alaska: I wouldn’t say that things are “booming”, but we did just receive our dividend checks, and an additional $1200 per Alaskan to be placed toward one’s electric & heating bills for the year. (Those who qualified for dividend checks, qualified for the energy allowance.) Unfortunately, a great many it seems did NOT “invest” their money in heat & electric, or even in items to improve their home’s fuel efficience, their food situation, or other wise purchases. My hubby and I shelled out a BIT as “mad-money”, but we also called for our year’s supply of heatting oil, we’ve got a list of home-improvements and vehicular-maintenance that we’re hoping can be paid for with the money, and at the very bottom are “extras” like that “LCD big-screen TV” the hubby wants, and an Ipod for myself. If the money reaches that far, of course. This weekend we’ll be doing some of the “smaller” big item shopping: a couple of long-overdue medicine cabinets in the bathroom, as well as storage pieces for inside cabinets and on top of counters; upgrading a bed for the kiddo, so that her old dresser can be moved to our room, and we can get rid of the hubby’s old POS; letting the kiddo pick out her birthday present. Ya know, smaller things that’ll make our home more livable.
The hubby’s job is coming into it’s busy time, and things are looking fairly steady at least for the winter. My job is in the library, and while I didn’t get the library position here closer to home, my job in town is still there.
We’re not so worried about losing our home as some. We bought 9 years ago, and the mortgage is owned by a small Alaskan bank. (Not saying that it couldn’t happen, but for now that’s a little less of a concern for us.) My FIL is somewhat worried, as all his insurance policies are through AIG. His house and land is owned free & clear, by him and the MIL. (Actually, by the MIL as the property is part of her family’s old home-stead.) FIL started stocking up ages ago, and even to Sunday when ridiculed (by the MIL) for his stock of canned & dried goods, he commented that at least he knows that he’ll be able to eat & help his family eat if things get any more rough.
My hubby and I have never really counted on our 401(k)’s or pension plans actually BEING there when we’re of “retiree” age. We’ve known it’s too ridiculous to assume that the government or banking industry wouldn’t find some way to screw us out of them. I’m well aware that it’s unlikely I’ll ever ACTUALLY get to “retire”. That’s ok, I’ve always said they’d have to carry me out of “my” library in a pine box. Now that goes for my home and garden, as well.
Watching the financial news on yahoo has been eerily remeniscent (sp?) of reading recounts of the Great Depression. I see the pictures of the faces of the floor-traders and stock brokers, and they remind me of the faces in pictures from 1929. I don’t suspect we’ll see a rash of folks jumping off roofs to their death, but I’m guessing closed casket burials will be a necessity. We’ve always been too “poor” to invest, but we’re not feeling too badly about it. We’ve got a small home, but it’s more ours than a lot of other people can lay claim to. We’re not eatting lobster every other day, but we’ve been gardening for 5 years now and have had some decent successes this year. We’re not dressing in fancy clothes, but we’re dressed and shod. We don’t get to vacation in exotic ports every year, but hunting and camping and fishing is good enough. (Most of the time. Though I DID enjoy my visit to Spokane this summer.) I’ve got some handi-skills I’m comfortable with, and a stock of yarn & fabric and easy sewing clothes patterns.
I’m concerned, but I’m not freaking. Our world may be different in the morning, but it WILL still be here.
I live in an Oregon town of 35K in the Willamette Valley. Unemployment is rising slowly, and as the farm harvesting work winds down, many families and individuals will have to rely on welfare again (in a yearly cycle of the seasons in an agricultural state). I myself live in a travel trailer and am trying to weatherize it and make it as livable, frugal and efficient as possible keeping in mind that blackouts, fuel shortages and rationing might be around the corner. I’m giving ideas to all my neighbors, both those who are really wealthy and drive/own beautiful RV’s and trailers in the $70K+ range or those that are very poor living in trailers because they have no other options (like me). As we gear up for the rainy (winter-fall-spring) season, I am deeply apprehensive about so many things, I don’t know where to start. A major concern is not having land to garden on – rented, owned or borrowed – and not having the room for many as many preps as I’d like. As a single mom, I worry most about my son and his future.
I am always impressed with everything you write and do, Sharon. With the wealth of replies you get to open ended questions like this I can only imagine how much of your time is eaten up by your on-line presence.
Here in Montreal there is very little other than high gas prices to indicate that anything is going badly. We hear stories about things happening south of the border and we question how it will impact our lives and our local economy, but other than the talk, there is nothing really changing. So far there haven’t been major job losses, the housing market has slowed but not gone into reverse, personally my wife and I are still fully employed and doing reasonably well at keeping our expenses down. Like others who have replied our only debt is our home mortgage.
What we do occasionally hear, since many Canadian companies serve American companies, is that contracts are being reduced or cancelled. This will have an effect on employment in the medium term unless the Canadian companies can drum up contracts with European or Asian companies.
With respect to winter heating, I don’t know what the ratio is, but houses in Montreal are heated either with electricity, natural gas or heating oil. I have a heat-pump that does some of the heating and an oil furnace that heats the house when it is too cold for the heat pump. Our heating oil supplier estimated 2600$ for the winter season based on last year’s consumption and projected oil prices. This is still within the realm of affordability for us.
I am strangely, surreally calm. Sometimes I think to myself “Ah. So this is what it looks like.” Sometimes I think, “I’m glad we have stocked up some food.” Sometimes I think, “All that retirement money was imaginary, anyway…and I have years to get it back. Or I might just die in the meantime, so why worry?”
Sometimes I think, “I’m glad the waiting is over.”
I have an extra 10% off anything I buy at Safeway, 1.5 miles away, until oct 15. It is part of some promotion and they sent me a card and when I signed up I got an extra 8 weeks of 10 percent off. I had been using my Mom’s Safeway card up to then–she doesn’t need to use it herself anymore.
So, everytime something happens in the news these days or I’ve finished reading this blog and some others that day, I end up going to Safeway. I go in and end up buying some kind of food item marked down, or on my food stores list, and I feel like I’ve done something to stave off anxiety about the future and it is food or goods that’s a little extra off the present price.
It’s silly but it’s a way to feel lilke I’m doing something to prepare. And I’m running out of cabinets to put past it.
It’s really sobering and fascinating to read about all the things people are doing around the country these days.
cheers,
Shamba
As far as this area goes, it depends on where you look. There is a LOT of money in this town, thanks to the army. The city’s entire tax base rests on the arsenal and space center. It’s boomed in the past few years thanks to that. If you’re lucky enough to work for the army or get swept up in the tide, times are great.
Then there’s the ones who aren’t doing so well. The mayor tries to claim there’s no poverty here (ha!) but there is a lot of it and more is creeping in everyday. There are lots of people out of work -the factories are slowly shutting down and so are a lot of retail outlets. More and more people are getting their utilities shut off. The food banks stay empty. No one but the army is hiring and that’s specialized work that involves killing people for a living.
Myself, it is getting to the point where I am about to be in a rather dire situation. I haven’t been able to find a job. I have my little PRN job (brings in maybe $150 a month) and some odd jobs. That’s it. I’ve got my house up for sale but if it doesn’t sale in another month or I can’t find a job I’m looking at foreclosure. I have nowhere to go. No family. What I’m going to do if I can’t sell the house or get a job I don’t know.
I forgot to add that my one serious disagreement with Greer is that he does take such a broad view and doesn’t seem to understand that if you’re one of the ones who die in such a crisis or lose everything, it hardly matters if the apocalypse has come for the entire world -it certainly has come for you!