Comments on: Going Back to Bed With a Bottle of Wine http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/ Finding the keys to the future…and trying not to lose them in the mess. Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:26:03 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Traverse Davies http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16298 Traverse Davies Mon, 25 May 2009 14:11:39 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16298 @Eleanor Try going to http://www.realclimate.org If your friend is an engineer, they should find all of the data they could possibly want to confirm that there is no way global warming is sunspots. On a side note... I am trying to get sources together for an article on Global Warming (as a guest spot on anther site). Anyone who has any, please drop a line on my site (http://logic11.wordpress.com) @Eleanor

Try going to http://www.realclimate.org

If your friend is an engineer, they should find all of the data they could possibly want to confirm that there is no way global warming is sunspots.

On a side note… I am trying to get sources together for an article on Global Warming (as a guest spot on anther site). Anyone who has any, please drop a line on my site (http://logic11.wordpress.com)

]]> By: madison http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16297 madison Thu, 21 May 2009 20:41:54 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16297 I watched the movie "Day After Tomorrow" yesterday and one line really stuck with me. When it's obvious the storm is going to be catastrophic, and the characters are talking about what can be done, the elder says "Save who you can" (or close to that), knowing most won't be saved. I think we are reaching that moment, when it's too late... so, do what you can. Decide who you will be in the face of collapse. That's all you can really do. I watched the movie “Day After Tomorrow” yesterday and one line really stuck with me. When it’s obvious the storm is going to be catastrophic, and the characters are talking about what can be done, the elder says “Save who you can” (or close to that), knowing most won’t be saved. I think we are reaching that moment, when it’s too late… so, do what you can. Decide who you will be in the face of collapse. That’s all you can really do.

]]> By: Sharon http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16296 Sharon Thu, 21 May 2009 12:07:06 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16296 The reason I'm inclined to take these models somewhat seriously is that they are backed up by so much material that demonstrates consistently that we have understated the problem of AGW at every point. I think we've also radically understated the costs of adaptation - the green movement is deeply invested in the idea that "this won't hurt economic growth, we'll have new green jobs" - when in fact, it should be phrasing this much harder terms "the time for reflection is over, this will cost us, but we have the potential to save the lives of our own children." Sharon The reason I’m inclined to take these models somewhat seriously is that they are backed up by so much material that demonstrates consistently that we have understated the problem of AGW at every point. I think we’ve also radically understated the costs of adaptation – the green movement is deeply invested in the idea that “this won’t hurt economic growth, we’ll have new green jobs” – when in fact, it should be phrasing this much harder terms “the time for reflection is over, this will cost us, but we have the potential to save the lives of our own children.”

Sharon

]]> By: vera http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16295 vera Thu, 21 May 2009 02:58:40 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16295 "Rapid and massive action" is needed, they tell us. Like what? Junk your car, buy a horse?... Although I do know of one rapid massive action that could be done if the farmers cared to do it. Convert plowed fields into pastures and capture vast quantities of carbon thereby. Goodbye golden fields of grain, they actually add carbon to the atmosphere. “Rapid and massive action” is needed, they tell us. Like what? Junk your car, buy a horse?… Although I do know of one rapid massive action that could be done if the farmers cared to do it. Convert plowed fields into pastures and capture vast quantities of carbon thereby. Goodbye golden fields of grain, they actually add carbon to the atmosphere.

]]> By: Uncle Yarra http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16294 Uncle Yarra Wed, 20 May 2009 22:52:53 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16294 Elaenor, "Any suggestions about how to discuss these issues with those who do not beleive in G.W.? For example, I know someone (a nuclear engineer) who is convinced that this is all due to the convergence/alignment of sun spots (which apparently happens every 100 years or so, or something like that) and it will all go away after a while." The feedback mechanisms here on earth will not 'go away' after sun spots decline. He may also talk about the 'chilling stars' and how cosmic radiation causes cloud nucleation/formation (which reflects a lot of heat if they are at the right altitude). Ask him how close the correlation is after 2003. All the climate models keep the same basic premise and modify slightly as new information comes to hand. For the cosmic radiation theory, after 2003, the data does not support a correlation. Thus there is either no validity to the idea or a major rethink is needed. Besides, even if Milankovitch cycles are as big a climate driver as some say, and Earth is being warmed by that process, do we really want to add to it with more pollution just when it is getting hot? Talk about adding fuel to the fire...! Get him to watch Chris Martenson Crash course and look at the risk matrix and aask him if he still wants to do nothing then. Elaenor,
“Any suggestions about how to discuss these issues with those who do not beleive in G.W.? For example, I know someone (a nuclear engineer) who is convinced that this is all due to the convergence/alignment of sun spots (which apparently happens every 100 years or so, or something like that) and it will all go away after a while.”

The feedback mechanisms here on earth will not ‘go away’ after sun spots decline.
He may also talk about the ‘chilling stars’ and how cosmic radiation causes cloud nucleation/formation (which reflects a lot of heat if they are at the right altitude).

Ask him how close the correlation is after 2003.

All the climate models keep the same basic premise and modify slightly as new information comes to hand. For the cosmic radiation theory, after 2003, the data does not support a correlation. Thus there is either no validity to the idea or a major rethink is needed.

Besides, even if Milankovitch cycles are as big a climate driver as some say, and Earth is being warmed by that process, do we really want to add to it with more pollution just when it is getting hot? Talk about adding fuel to the fire…!

Get him to watch Chris Martenson Crash course and look at the risk matrix and aask him if he still wants to do nothing then.

]]> By: madison http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16293 madison Wed, 20 May 2009 19:57:27 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16293 What this says to me is: Educate your children, keep talking about how the world is going to change (age appropriately, of course). If you have fears of not making it to your child's adulthood, maybe write a letter to be opened at a later date. Emphasize that things are going to change, migrating at some point in the future may be a somewhat useful option. As our lives become more local, we have to balance that against the scary thought that stepping out into the unknown and leaving our local home might someday be the best option of survival. Walk out if you have to, but keep your options open. Cultivate a mindset of impermanence and that home is where you make it. What this says to me is:

Educate your children, keep talking about how the world is going to change (age appropriately, of course). If you have fears of not making it to your child’s adulthood, maybe write a letter to be opened at a later date. Emphasize that things are going to change, migrating at some point in the future may be a somewhat useful option. As our lives become more local, we have to balance that against the scary thought that stepping out into the unknown and leaving our local home might someday be the best option of survival. Walk out if you have to, but keep your options open. Cultivate a mindset of impermanence and that home is where you make it.

]]> By: villabolo http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16292 villabolo Wed, 20 May 2009 19:33:35 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16292 I highly recommend the books Six Degrees and Under a Green Sky on this subject. The important thing to note is that we don't need to put out five or more degrees worth of pollutants into the sky all by ourselves. Once we raise it to three or so natural feedback loops will kick in. Siberia and the Arctic Ocean will be warmed even more and we'll have more methane and Carbon Dioxide being exhaled through the melting permafrost and clathrate hydrates. It seems to some that nothing short of a total civilization collapse within a decade will stop all this. Even a partial collapse-probably increasing the use of coal which is worse-might fail to stop a major catastrophe. I highly recommend the books Six Degrees and Under a Green Sky on this subject.

The important thing to note is that we don’t need to put out five or more degrees worth of pollutants into the sky all by ourselves. Once we raise it to three or so natural feedback loops will kick in. Siberia and the Arctic Ocean will be warmed even more and we’ll have more methane and Carbon Dioxide being exhaled through the melting permafrost and clathrate hydrates.

It seems to some that nothing short of a total civilization collapse within a decade will stop all this. Even a partial collapse-probably increasing the use of coal which is worse-might fail to stop a major catastrophe.

]]> By: Chile http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16291 Chile Wed, 20 May 2009 19:01:12 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16291 I hate to be the resident cynic, but it really doesn't surprise me. Humans have fouled the nest thoroughly and completely, and we aren't the only species paying the price for it. Definitely time to get the h*ll out of the desert, though. :( I hate to be the resident cynic, but it really doesn’t surprise me. Humans have fouled the nest thoroughly and completely, and we aren’t the only species paying the price for it.

Definitely time to get the h*ll out of the desert, though. :(

]]> By: Eleanor http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16290 Eleanor Wed, 20 May 2009 18:10:54 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16290 Wow! That is upsetting. But I firmly beleive we need to pay attention. As a biochemist, I agree with what was said regarding scientific models. I would also add that one might want to keep in their mind that science does not deal with absolutes, since you test theories, which are never actually proven with finality. You can get pretty close with a scientific "law" (e.g., the law of gravity). But, in general, you really have to look at how strong the data are and the level of significance. If there is a high probablilit something will occur, we'd better pay attention and act accordingly. Any suggestions about how to discuss these issues with those who do not beleive in G.W.? For example, I know someone (a nuclear engineer) who is convinced that this is all due to the convergence/alignment of sun spots (which apparently happens every 100 years or so, or something like that) and it will all go away after a while. Wow! That is upsetting. But I firmly beleive we need to pay attention.

As a biochemist, I agree with what was said regarding scientific models. I would also add that one might want to keep in their mind that science does not deal with absolutes, since you test theories, which are never actually proven with finality. You can get pretty close with a scientific “law” (e.g., the law of gravity). But, in general, you really have to look at how strong the data are and the level of significance. If there is a high probablilit something will occur, we’d better pay attention and act accordingly.

Any suggestions about how to discuss these issues with those who do not beleive in G.W.? For example, I know someone (a nuclear engineer) who is convinced that this is all due to the convergence/alignment of sun spots (which apparently happens every 100 years or so, or something like that) and it will all go away after a while.

]]> By: Sarah http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/comment-page-1/#comment-16289 Sarah Wed, 20 May 2009 18:00:42 +0000 http://sharonastyk.com/2009/05/20/going-back-to-bed-with-a-bottle-of-wine/#comment-16289 Erika -- I tend to do the same thing...unless the climate news is that New England is going to be uninhabitable in the very near future (which seems unlikely), nothing I read is going to make me act any differently. So I try to at least have a vague idea of what's going on, but the details will just make me curl up into a panicked little ball. Erika — I tend to do the same thing…unless the climate news is that New England is going to be uninhabitable in the very near future (which seems unlikely), nothing I read is going to make me act any differently. So I try to at least have a vague idea of what’s going on, but the details will just make me curl up into a panicked little ball.

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