http://littlebloginthebigwoods.blogspot.com/2009/06/beating-heat-and-cold.html

I agree with all of you that insulation is the answer here – and I love bubblewrap. We actually made small light wooden frames with bubble wrap stapled in, so we could reuse it, and it has made a huge difference. I guess what concerns me is that volatility and credit decline make it hard for many families to reinsulate – I’m hoping that the stimulus funds for this project are sufficient to make a difference, although I gather there are some issues, including the proportional shift of more of that money to the south for political reasons.

Sharon

That said, and for what it’s worth (probably not much), I think oil in the short run is setting up for another fall back – possibly into the 40s. I say this because inventories are still building, demand is down even more than supply seems to be at the moment, and the economy is still reeling from the earlier shocks. As well, I think the greater stock market’s current bounce has about petered out and for the moment, oil traders have been looking at stocks as some kind of surrogate economic indicator. On the other hand, oil has been used lately as a safe haven from a declining dollar too.

I’m still sitting in mild amazement too at learning that income tax revenues in the states are off around 30% for the first four months of 2009 too, courtesy of Greg’s blog. http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/2009-06-18-State_Revenue_Flash.pdf That speaks volumes about this economy’s ill-health and its current, sagging demand for oil, not that the latter has to last all that long, though I suppose.

What’s up for oil prices in the longer run? Well, I’m glad I have a bike pulling a trailer and that I heat (a well-insulated house) with wood is all I can say to that.

Good luck everybody.

For those preparing for cold weather, I cannot overstate the value of bubblewrap on the windows! We tried it last winter (we have huge windows on the south side, for passive solar gain, which is awesome … until the sun goes down, which is around 4 pm here in the depths of winter). I was absolutely amazed at the improvement in heat retention just by doing that simple thing. (Hat tip to SolarGary of builditsolar.com!). I was able to scavenge bubble wrap from the dumpster at work (yes, I shamelessly dove in to pull out that pile of plastic!), and got really long 2′ wide rolls of it at Staples for $12, so it was very affordable.

I know of no dairy farmer in our area that sold their cows for slaughter. Any sales were the whole herd for milking by someone else because the price they received was at least double the beef price for their cows.

It’s pretty scary watching that ball skitter over that roulette wheel. Long term we’re considering passive solar thermal. We don’t have ideal insolation here, but we keep the house pretty cool in winter anyway.

When I look at US consumer credit outstanding, it’s gone down but it’s still above 2007 levels.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

Mortgage debt is also above 2007 levels.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/mortoutstand20090331.htm

When I look at the CPI numbers published by Shadowstats, prices are still inflating. They are decreasing in their rate of year over year increase but are still positive.

http://www.shadowstats.com/charts_republish#cpi

All of the US money supply growth numbers are also positively increasing (M1, M2, M3)

http://www.shadowstats.com/charts_republish#m3

While all of the numbers are tending to decrease the rate of increase, they are all still increasing. I understand that deflation may yet occur but I don’t see the evidence yet.

Can you point me to data that better indicates deflation ??

The UPS truck has just delivered my order from Amazon…

and with it a copy of:

Depletion and Abundance, Life on the New Home front.

I asked my wife to read your book for my Father’s Day present.

I look forward to reading it as well.

Oil was more common in the Midwest at one point, too. Our current house had oil heat after St. Louis passed laws that forced the end of coal as a heat source. Air pollution from coal stoves had killed people in the 1900s, leading to banning of the use of coal stoves. Our house had coal heating when it was built (1928), then went to oil heating after coal became illegal. The woman we bought the house from told us she switched from oil to natural gas heating during the 1970s, when oil got very expensive.

We’ve already insulated and sealed the house as well as can be done. I need to add curtains or blinds to the windows lacking them, and glass in the south-facing porch to add some inexpensive solar heating. So far we’ve been able to keep ahead of rising costs through conservation measures, but I suspect, for the reasons you mentioned, that at some point we will no longer be able to keep ahead of them. We already have hats and blankets, probably need to get more long underwear … and be ready to live in the basement in the summer, when electricity goes up to the point when AC is longer a reasonable possibility, even for the little we use it (anywhere from 3 to 6 weeks during the summer depending on the weather).