Ok, Breathe.
Sharon April 24th, 2008
So my last post kinda hit a nerve. I broke 100 comments for the very first time (thanks for the lively discussion on nuclear power, guns, veganism and tomato plants), and made the top links at Savinar’s LATOC, the Automatic Earth, Energy Bulletin, etc… Can I just make one little complaint - I asked, nay, begged y’all to argue me out of this belief, and almost no one argued the basic premise at all. I really, really wanted someone to persuade me that things aren’t really going to hell in a handbasket.
Given that that doesn’t seem to be happening, what to do? Where do we go from here? I have compiled a list of suggestions, most of them fairly obvious.
1. Take a couple of deep breaths. Yes, this is a scary thing. Yes, this is a terribly sad thing. Yes, we have every obligation to bust our behinds to do what we can to mitigate the disaster unfolding before us.
And yet, let’s also note that this current crisis was 150 years in the making and had the participation of a lot of people. You didn’t do it by yourself, and you aren’t going to fix it by yourself. You are potentially more powerful than you think - but no delusions of grandeur here ;-). The world will not fall apart if you take a short break. Remember, we are the last fairy godmothers in line at the Christening. We can’t make the curse go away, we can just soften it a little.
So take those deep breaths. Go out in the garden and sit in the sun for a bit. Read a book - and not a book about peak oil or food, a trashy novel - no high art allowed. If you are a chick, and you haven’t read Georgette Heyer’s _Venetia_ or _Faro’s Daughter_ do. If you are of either gender, and like mysteries, read Barbara Hambly’s _A Free Man of Color_ and the sequels. Tom Robbins is permitted, and if you are a Sci Fi geek Lois McMaster Bujold (stay far, far away from the horrible ones about Fawn and Dag, though), Connie Willis (my favorite is _Bellweather_ or Neil Stephenson. But stay away from “the earth is destroyed by a giant baseball bat and a few survivors must fight off drooling zombies…” stuff. This is denial time.
Rent a movie. I suggest a pre-1950s comedy, preferrably something with Cary Grant. “His Gal Friday” “Desk Set” (my favorite of the Hepburn-Tracy flicks), “The Thin Man” or the perfect, glorious “A Night at the Opera.” Nothing that reminds you of our present crisis - no “Modern Times.”
Have a beer or two. Throw or kick a ball with your kid or some borrowed kid from the neighborhood. Pat your seedlings. Pet your dog or cat or guinea pig. Hang out with friends and talk about trivial things. Do something life affirming for a short while.
And then, get back to work on the same things - because in a way, it doesn’t much matter if I’m right or not - the answer to how to do deal with a fast crash or a slow crash is the same - live differently, help other people adapt to living differently, grow food, enrich soil, share, talk to the neighbors, help each other out, take care of yourself and your own, give what you can to those in need, meet as many of your own needs as you can, keep services alive for those who are most vulnerable, speak out against injustice, do what good you can, and try and stop what evil you can, love one another, take pleasure in what you have and find a way to hope for the future. Above all, to paraphrase the words over the Holocaust Museum - DON’T BE A BYSTANDER. Be in your world, as deeply as you can, as bravely as you can.
2. Do not start panic buying food, especially rice. Does that sound strange, coming from me? Over at the breaking news page of LATOC you will see a lot of articles about food rationing hitting the US. You may also see, if you look here that food rationing panic drove rice prices up to a record high overnight. And while I’ve written that I don’t think poor people buying rice at reasonable prices is hoarding, and should not be primarily blamed for high rice prices, a lot of well fed Americans buying rice suddenly because Costco (btw, you heard it here first) is limiting purchases *is* bad for the world’s poor. So don’t buy rice right now. Take a deep breath again, and recognize that you and I will always be able to outbid poor people for rice, and that part of why food storage buying made sense is because my audience was so small - everyone wasn’t doing it. When the problem was not acute, buying rice for your family made sense. Now, it is acute, and it is more important to do what we can to help the poor.
Does this mean you shouldn’t store food - no, you absolutely should, but don’t contribute to the drive up of rice prices. By oatmeal, plant potatoes, buy quinoa - but not big sacks or pallet loads of rice. Forgo CAFO meat, and eat only meat, milk and eggs that is raised on pasture or with minimal human food grain use. Send the money you would spend on that stuff (or on soyburgers - buy whole black soybeans and eat them instead) to the relief of the poor.
3. Add another row in your garden, or a bed, or something, and donate it to your food pantry. Grow more food if you can. Ask a neighbor if you can grow on her lawn, or your boss if you can plant vegetables on the corporate greenspace. Push the limits of agriculture and local food as hard as you can. Talk about food - make sure people understand that this is about who eats.
4. Get the hell out of your car. I know this is hard - I live in the country - everything is far away. But do it anyway - I bet you have a couple of trips you could skip. Find a way. Not warming the planet and not buying ethanol are too important. So find a way. We dumped our van, we’re now the proud owners of a tiny, high mileage compact car not officially designed for 6 people, 3 in carseats, but we can do it - and the less we drive, the less I have to sit crammed in the middle. Making your car freakin’ uncomfortable is an excellent way of creating incentives to drive less ;-).
5. There’s a good chance you’ll never build your strawbale dream house, start up that intentional community or buy a farm. You may well be adapting in place. So if you have been waiting to do things until you were where you want to be, start acting as though you might be in that place. It is time to decide that home now is home. Maybe you won’t have to stay put - but a lot of us will - or we’ll be moving onto someone’s couch. Or someone will be moving onto yours.
So use the yard sale season to get some extra blankets, and prep the couch, the guest room or whatever. Think about how the kids might double up. Accept that where you are may be your world for a while, and make it the best place you can.
Build community - even if your neighbors are assholes, they are your assholes now. ;-). Get to know them, and get to know the power structures in your town and region - see what you can get started. Talk about food security and Katrina and start developing a plan.
See the opportunity here to push harder, make more change, get more involved. Run for something. Give that talk at your church or community center. Yes, I know you don’t want to. Do it anyway.
6. Triage. If everything collapsed today (and no, it isn’t going to happen, so relax a little - I swear on all that is holy you have at least until Sunday ;-)), where would you be? Your community? Your family? What could you accomplish, and what can’t you? Write it down.
Next, take a look at what you would want to accomplish if you had a couple more years and some money. Make a list. I’m going to bet that there are some duplications on both lists - that is, there are things you have to do that you want to do anyway. Guess which things are now numbers 1 and 2 on your priority list. Maybe you still won’t be able to do them - but at least you know. And maybe you will.
But think it through. I know, it isn’t much fun - it is far nicer to ask “what do we want the world to look like.” But just in case, have a plan for fucked up too. If you need guidance, I would encourage you to read Dmitry Orlov’s articles on his life during the Soviet Collapse, and to read his book as soon as it is available - it is terrific.
Of course there’s more - health care, transport, education…but start here. Breathe first, then get to work. Yes, things are falling apart rapidly, we’ve acknowledged it. But then again, your life is different from yesterday now…how?
Sharon
- future
- Comments(63)
Whew! Thanks, that’s what we needed today.
Thanks Sharon, I was thinking I might have to stop reading your blog for while to avoid massive sadness.
Thanks from me, too, Sharon. That was lovely. And true. It doesn’t have to be a “dog eat dog” world. We decide.
Funny you should suggest patting your seedlings…just before checking in here I decided to go over to the plant stand in the corner and take a peek at my 60 little basil seedlings I started this weekend. Seeing their little green heads growing out of the seedling cells definitely made me smile!
MMMmmmmm! Basil!
Thanks Sharon! It was good to read yesterday - to have everything written down (of what we already knew was happening). I guess it solidified everything.
I love the list you created today. Having a plan in place helps us see where we are and where we need to be (mentally and physically).
Sharon- Thank you so much for your terrific blog. I just found you a few weeks ago through LATOC. Your post yesterday summed up what I have been reading compulsively on Matt’s site. You put it all together in one concise scary piece. Thank you for doing so. It makes it easier to accept it all and as your post today expressed, to take a deep breath and get on with it. None of us knows what truly lies ahead. We can make educated guesses and plan and act from there. My husband and I are people of faith and as such, we rely deeply on our God. But, that doesn’t mean that we sit around and wait for divine intervention. We live by the philosophy of “Plan for the worst and pray for the best”. Then no matter what comes, we are reasonably prepared. Thank you again. You are appreciated more than you can know. It is so easy to feel that you are the only one aware of the seriousness of the coming changes. You and your readers provide some solidarity and comfort in the midst of a crazy world!
No sadness here! Preparedness, sure, but sadness and panic, no way. All I can do is my best, and after that I’ll take what comes. We can plan for the future and still enjoy today.
I also believe very strongly that humans are tough, resilient and innovative, often more so than we give ourselves credit for. If it’s within our power to make a viable life for ourselves, we will.
We have until Sunday? For sure? Yay!
You have no idea how hard that made me laugh … you see … my fiance (who listens with reasonable patience to my talk of peak oil and global warming and all, and accepts the need to be prepared in general terms but isn’t quite as ‘doomerish’ as I am) keeps joking that I think the world’s going to come crashing down “next Friday”.
Now I can tell him we are fine, for sure, until Sunday! Sharon said so!
Thanks for all you do.
Ok, that’s scary; our taste in movies is almost identical.
Yeah, a little escape is good, and necessary for sanity, even. Rest.
Regarding the imminence of the collapse - it’s been looking really bad to me for a long time- and what has consistently impressed me is the truly VAST inertia of the main society.
Even when bludgeoned with disasters- it changes rather slowly. So far.
It’s unpredictable, of course. A huge number of unknowns. I have one highly educated and erudite friend who is predicting the total collapse of US currency. That could cause some very rapid change.
I don’t see it happening instantly, myself. But far faster than it looked last year.
Sharon, may I offer a link to this post by Mike Ford on dealing with stress?
The plum trees are blooming here — and it’s snowing. OH is at what will likely be his last meeting at the company campus: today he’s going to tell his bosses that barring critical meetings with partners, he plans to telecommute five days a week rather than three.
DS and our neighbor finished the last bit of work on the guest room yesterday, bricking up the hole where the air conditioner used to be: my mother will be comfortable if she comes out to us. The CSA share’s confirmed, the plants are ready to go in after the last frost date (May 15th) — we’ll see what happens.
oh, yeah, and if you HAVEN’T seen “The Twelve Chairs” - this might be the time. Mel Brook’s finest work- and unlike any of his others.
So, I guess it’s not a good thing that I finally found Last Light at the used bookstore, huh?
Thank you deeply, Sharon.
Your website has kept me busy for the last 24 hours in particular. I guess I’ll go and do some Yoga.
Namaste!
~Vegan
The thing about doomsters arguing is that they all try and one up one another, which makes being in that discussion such a drag–
the emphasis isn’t on discerning and prioritizing what’s going on;
but in out-dooming one another.
The truth is the reason many of us don’t have an opinion on a short or a long crash is that we in all honesty do not know!
We see with our own eyes the rice shortages, but what really is the cause? We read and read and read, but do we honestly really know that the cause is commodity traders bidduing up prices artificially? Or drought in Australia? Or the dollar dropping? Or oil prices rising? Or a combination of all of the above?
Does the Iraq war and all the ramifications of that have anything to do with it?
There are many books out on collapse, and we see it first hand with the demise of bees, bats and other species.
I ask you Sharon and all others on this blog - DOES IT REALLY MATTER WHETHER THE COLLAPSE IS SHORT OR LONG?
How would that change our life either way? Human nature has proven over and over again that we are not good at long term preparation for anything, except maybe a few Mormons and Amish folks. Whether we wake up Sunday morning to no food in the groceries or two years from now, I venture to say that most of us will be no more prepared either way. Now, granted those of us on this blog may be a little better off, but the majority of the American people being clueless will not be prepared. Katrina is one example recetly and there are many others in history. I am sorry to say that this is reality.
Now I do have faither that people under extreme crisis can and do adjust very quickly, I still say that those who prepare are few and far between, short or long, makes no difference. Someone prove me wrong.
I read some W. H. Auden. I guess that counts.
I got my water barrels in.
I stole a ham from church that no one can identiy as belonging to in one as has been in the freezer for months to take the soup kitchen on Tuesday. (I think catalogued a book with a long discission about IA and pigs in Demarks, which didn’t encourage my original plan to ask the soup kitchen to stick the bone in their freezer for me to take next time I go. (I also get stale bread and table decoration pumpkins from them: it’s a hoot, I dontate food and then eat their leavings. Got to love this world.)
But the best thing I’m doing, IMO, is putting in a garden from a friend after church on Sunday. It invovles a bit of driivng (9 miles, both ways), but I can’t imagine anything more worthwhile I’ll be doing. I’ve also given way about 5 lbs of seed potatoes to people who’ve promised to grow them.
I’m talking myself out of adopting a 3rd child, which was my immediate response, and I can hardly look after the one I have now. I did think, as I hack sawed my way though a drain pipe by torch light, aware I had more digging still to do, that if anyone has an extra, hardworking spouse with traps to trade for compst, seed potatoes, or a couple of first U.S. editions of Ruskin, I’d be happy to work something out. (Send photo of traps.)
MEA
sharon,
thank you for reminding me of what will be my life’s work. on the cusp of 26 years old, i am beginning to feel truly responsible for something.
-maria
Hey! No dissing the Dag & Fawn books.
In fact, I have virtuously put off buying the third one that just came out this week so I can buy tubing for my self-watering containers.
Now, this weekend, water barrels. Toddler-safe ones this time.
Lydia,
The only reason it matters to me whether the crash is short or long is that directly impacts my security plan for my family. That’s it, period. I have little to no control over anything else but what we do to get ready to face whatever is coming, however fast or slow it may be in getting here.
For example, if I see signs that things are happening faster than I expected, then I know I need to reshuffle my lists and reprioritize some things. That’s my take on the whole fast/slow crash argument in a nutshell although I do sometimes let myself get drawn into pointless debates (*cough*nuclearpower*cough*)
Sorry, Rosa, I love everything you say except that. They suck. Note, I actually have read them both, and will almost certainly read the third one. But I’m still ticked at her for not writing better books. The world is going to hell, I want an Ivan novel, dammit!
sharon
Ivan-you-idiot.
Hey, you mentioned guinea pigs - neat! Mine certainly keep me sane some days. They’ve got their priorities straight: give them some fresh veggies and hay, a warm place to sleep and they’re so happy they can’t help but squeak and hop for joy. That’s contentment!
Um, er. Global warming. Carbon footprints. My peas are 3″ high now.
And I filled the wading pool this morning, and just spent a lovely hour or so lying on the ground on a fleece blanket and a couple of pillows reading False Colors by Georgette Heyer, while David played in the water and my laundry fluttered in the breeze. (When we’re done with the pool, the water will go on the various veggie plots, so it won’t be wasted.) It’s a beautiful day. I can go back to worrying about the falling sky tomorrow.
Oh, I loved False Colors. The relationship between the mother and her perennial suitor (can’t recall the names) make for my all-time favorite Heyer relationship.
Sharon
Good thing I really don’t like rice that much- am a pasta type myself, so not likely to join the hordes panic-buying out the rice. Interesting to watch human psychology at work though- doesn’t take much to trigger a panic buying situation- just enough people buying more than they usually do resulting in empty shelves and limits placed on sales- that will do it- everyone then wants to buy the item in question. Hope they stay away from chocolate and coffee though- that could get serious
It is also interesting to watch as these things are happening- watching the price change, daily it seems, at the gas station- we are higher than the average prices in the country I guess- saw $3.55 for regular at a number of stations today….. couldn’t believe I was paying the equivalent of $9/gallon for organic milk- and that was the one on sale- the others would add up to $10/gallon- might have to get goats again after all…..
I starting to wonder how it will play out- I don’t buy much but everytime I do I can’t believe the prices- they are going up by tremendous amounts- not just food either.
And yes, it is good to not dwell on all of this all of the time- need to do and think of other things. I am learning to play a new instrument- that’s a really fun thing to do if you’re so inclined…..
Don’t you think Ivan might by gay?
Theresa, we love “piggies” too! We lost ours this winter (she was nearly 5, so she had a pretty good run for a piggie, especially given the harsh winters here.)
If you need a smile, here is a link to the cutest song and video…we listen to it regularly, our little guy (9) can’t get enough of it.
The Guinea Pig Way
*grin* Thank you for this post!!!! My hubby finally heard his Dad admit last night that TSIHTF as we speak. My Father-in-law was talking about how concerned he was about my hubby and daughter and I, and my nephews and their Mom & step-dad. He and I were discussing how best to preserve any extra we get from our gardens this year. We were discussing ways to retrofit our homes for exhorbintly high (for us) fuel costs and the inadequacies of wood as EVERYBODY is going wood-burning these days. We were talking about how much food we might be able to produce through the summer to help us get through the winter. And my FIL even mentioned he’s considering (only half jokingly) growing his own hops & barley to brew some beer up, since he can’t afford to keep buying it at the price it’s ramping up to now. My hubby had to stand there and listen to the FIL (Hubby’s dad) and I talk about this. He can’t even hide any more. And my FIL is actually pushing the hubby to let me garden in our front yard since our tiny back yard is already full (and will be even fuller once I get my compost & potato bins assembled, and my clothes-line-tree set up). My FIL may not get the full repercussions of our actions over the last 100-150 years, as a country, but he gets enough that he’s worried about those of us who are younger, and his concern is starting to break through my hubby’s “everything’s ok and this is a small dip in the road” attitude toward our current situation and the future of our world.
Anyway, all that last night, and today a coworker and I are going to see “Nim’s Island” together so we can let go, for just a bit, of some of these concerns we’ve both seen coming over the last couple of years, and are now facing in a big way. We realized a couple of weeks ago that we need the break from reality, however fleeting, and finally we found time in our busy scheduals to go see a movie together.
Then, tomorrow, it’s back to the gardening, and being an active part in my community (volunteering in my daughter’s school for the morning). Saturday, it’s more community, and garden, building. But, for today…. It’s a mindless, brainless feel-good movie.
Also loving that your boys are so into this that they thought up their own four-brothers garden. That’s great!!!! I hope they have friends (outside the immediate family) that they can share with on a child’s level how important it is to be doing what we can NOW for our world and communities.
Thanks again, and Blessings!
MEA, given Barrayaran culture, I think it’s unlikely that being homosexual would get any Vor lord out of a heterosexual marriage — it’s not as if there has to be physical contact to produce offspring.
Sharon- may I ask what type of car you are sqeezing everyone into? Looking for 3 carseat options that would work so we could ditch our van, too…
Sharon wrote: “You are potentially more powerful than you think - but no delusions of grandeur here”
Hey! Those are the only delusions worth having! I am the Goddess, hear me roar…
I’ve never been able to get into Bujold for some reason. There’s plenty of other sci-fi/fantasy writers I like though -myself at the top of the list of course.
Doomer articles always get a lot of comments. Hope is less entertaining.
I disagreed with you, but didn’t try to argue you out of it because it’s a belief. That it’s a belief unsupported by evidence in the long run is irrelevant.
Your taking the current food panic and drawing it out as a long-term conclusion makes as much sense as the recent article I read comparing Jan 2008 temperatures with Jan 2007 temperatures and saying, “so there’s actually global cooling.” It’s bollocks.
Don’t confuse the dramas of the moment with long-term trends. The panic will pass. We had enough food to feed everyone in the world twice over last year, and we have enough food to feed everyone in the world twice over today, as well. The problem remains as it ever was: distribution. The poorest people can’t afford enough and are malnourished at the same time as the richest people can afford too much, and are obese.
What’s changed in substance is that the various aid groups can’t afford the food they need to give to the starving. But governments are sorting it out and ponying up the cash. Yes, people are suffering horribly in the meantime. Yes, people will die in the meantime. But not millions, and the world is not turning into a Mad Maxian, Malthusian chaos.
The world economy is like the weather. And as someone who knows about global warming should know, the weather is a different thing to the climate. The climate is the trend over many years; the weather is day-to-day. We cannot tell much about the climate from the weather, anymore than you could guess whether I earned more or less this year than last by looking at how much cash I have in my wallet this afternoon.
Likewise, with the world economy, food production and people’s responses to that.
There was no sense my posting that amidst all the noise of people talking about their guns.
I realise that doomerism is a lot more exciting than all this staying calm business, but really, come on.
Kiashu, as you say, we disagree, probably about what a “crash” is - I think the starvation of millions of poor world denizens and the stripping of their access to minimal energy and water is a crash. Of course we have sufficient food - but that’s sort of irrelevant because all famines exist in worlds that have sufficient food. What we don’t have is sufficient access, and if that doesn’t turn around fairly quickly, there are going to be a lot of sufferers among the (expanding) poor of the rich world.
Again, I didn’t predict anything in particular - I described. And yes, the world economy changes - but usually over fairly long chunks of time. I don’t think people in Haiti have fairly long chunks of time - if they don’t eat soon, they die.
The whole point of the post was that it is a crash, even if you and I don’t go hungry.
Sharon
If Ivan is gay (and it’s an if) I could see him avoiding marriage simply by continuing to bumble along, sort of under everyone’s radar. Will he find a partner? Now that’s a different question.
I agree, btw, that marraige doesn’t have to be the end of his adventures.
Since I’m hijacking this thread….and assuming it TEOTWAWKI, what book series are going going to miss?
I was pleased that the last Potter book came out. For a while I was hoping GRR Martin would finish Song of Fire and Ice, (which I am still hoping he will), but it has been so long between books that I’ve lost the keen edge of longing.
And will PO (and all that surrounds it) be considered an Act of God, and end contractual obligations.
Goes with out saying that I want to see Sharon’s books in print and widely distributed.
That’s funny, I was just thinking last night about how doom and gloom that last post was, and how I should post a comment that had some upbeat info in it.
My landlord’s gardener (yes, they’d rather hire someone to do the job than figure it out themselves - it’s a bizarre concept to me) was in the backyard yesterday, and we had a lovely conversation about how the state of the world, hell in a handbasket, etc. I’ve actually had quite a few very good impromptu conversations recently on the subject. With people from work, my relatives, and now the gardener, who is a lovely older lady from south Brooklyn.
I’ll try to make this short: we’re not alone. Lots of other people are putting the pieces together. We still have a free press, and a lot of people are catching on. The Economist recently ran TWO cover stories on the food crisis, there are mainstream media stories on the biofuels/food crisis connection (Paul Krugman’s column in the NYTimes was a great one), PBS has flashy documentaries on the environmental havoc being wreaked by global warming… Awareness is being raised.
The gardener said: I can’t believe these news stories, how they try to make it sound like it’s China and India’s fault for wanting to have better lives. Who are we to say they should cut THEIR emissions? She said: everything is global now, why can’t our compassion be global too?
Average people like me and the gardener are limited in what we can do to change the situation, of course, we do need leadership. But the more people know, the bigger chance that this change in awareness will catch hold. Ordinary people, when given the choice between driving and watching the third world starve or not driving (once the choice is explained to them) will choose not to drive.
The picture is getting clearer all the time. And the clearer the picture gets, the harder it is for those in charge to ignore it.
the center does not hold …
[…] Sharon Astyk at Casaubon’s Book: “Do not start panic buying food, especially […]
Sharon wrote, “I think the starvation of millions of poor world denizens and the stripping of their access to minimal energy and water is a crash.”
Then we’ve had a crash for fifty years.
My reasoning that you can’t really call it a crash until things become substantially worse than they were. And I don’t see that happening for the world’s poor. You’re confusing a hectic few weeks with a long-term trend, as I said.
Countries are responding. They’re closing off exports of food, they’re giving money to the UN to ensure food for the starving, and so on. And a few excitable people are panicking. Sometimes the panic takes the form of rushing to the store to stock up on rice, sometimes it takes the form of blog posts crying “doom!”
The world, as yet, is not substantially worse off than before. Sudan is still having famine and mass murder in Darfur, just like five or ten years ago. Somalia is still caught up in civil war and ignored by the world, just like ten years ago, and Afghanistan is suffering civil war, just like ten years ago, and Haitians are gripped by civil conflict, turning their country into a desert by destroying all the trees, and starving - just like ten years ago.
On the other hand, Rwanda is now at peace and it’s impolite to even ask if someone’s Hutu and Tutsi, Nepal has ended a civil war, and the WHO this week immunised six million Malians against yellow fever.
Many dreadful things are happening in the world. Many wonderful things are happening. On the whole, the trend of the last couple of decades has been for an improvement in the conditions of the worst-off in the world. That does not mean that we should do nothing, that we can leave things to Science! or The Market!. But it does mean that we need not panic.
The world is not going to hell in a handbasket, though there are, perhaps, a few more basket cases around than there used to be.
100 million new hungry is kind of a big thing - despite the “poor are always with us” rhetoric. You may not think so, but I suspect I can be forgiven for thinking yes. Maybe it will go away - maybe it won’t. But it will have to go very quickly - the thing about hunger is that it does its damage fast - short periods of malnutrition do intellectual damage to children rapidly, and people can starve in a matter of weeks.
Over-reacting is always a danger. So is *under-reacting* - we can’t know for sure what the truth will be. But I’d rather it be said that I called a widespread increase in world hunger a disaster than that I just said “oh, it will go away soon.”
Sharon
One reason I see it as a crash, is that we are loosing the wherewithall to fix things. There was a time when I think it could have been done. (I don’t mean anything as simplistic as the West or the US telling everyone else what to do.)
Kiashu,
“That it’s a belief unsupported by evidence in the long run is irrelevant.”
How can you possibly know the evidence in the long run as the evidence has yet to manifest, in the long run? Your as big a believer in your beliefs as Sharon may be found out to be in hers. I hope your not being serious and just playing us for fools, you know, trying to have a bit of a laugh.
“We had enough food to feed everyone in the world twice over last year, and we have enough food to feed everyone in the world twice over today, as well.”
Yo, dude, I hate to point you to http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006_data.htm#fig3, but that seems to be saying something slightly different. It seems to be saying that, as we speak, that at least through 2006 more grain was being consumed that was being produced, globally. I truly understand that L. Brown is most likely just a dumb yokel Okie, but the numbers seem pretty damn convincing. Since this particular graph seems to show folk are sucking down more than Cargill, ADM, and Monsanto are shoving up, where’s this twice as much as we’ve ever needed actually coming from? Obviously I’m assuming your massive 2:1 problemo is just down to crappy train times. I say we blame it on British Rail (ok, I understand, BR no longer exists, but please, let us never walk alone, eh?).
Distribution, distribution, distribution. What a bug bear. Maybe if we were to dispense with globalisation and focus on local production the need to distribute might just fucking well disappear? What think you Mr. K? Might that not blow the distribution issue out of the water? Damn, that’s gunna mess up your CBOT account though, isn’t it. No margins. No leverage. No profit. No wonder you paint this as a “distribution problem.”
Oh yeah, one more interjection, what about the rather rapid trend down seen in this L. Brown chart as well, http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006_data.htm#fig5. Now, just thinking out loud here, but, just maybe, is it possible the reason we’ve been able to meet the needs of consumption is because we’ve been drawing down grain stocks? I know, I’m an idiot and a simpleton, but the gap between production and consumption seems to be rather well filled by stocks draw down. Listen, I know, you’re way smarter than I’ll ever be, but do you think there’s some really obvious going on here? Like no matter how much is being produced more is being consumed and at some point we’ll have nothing left to draw down?
As for the obese claim, while I don’t have the sources to hand, I do know that being fat isn’t just for the OECD anymore. You, much like Gary, just like neat and tidy and clean and bounded answers to problems that are a lot like looking after children: noisy, messy, smelly, irritating, insufferable, in short, you’re male. As such, you’re clueless. I should know. I’m male. I’m clueless.
As for the millions that aren’t dying, at least right now, where do you get your information from? Hey, opinions are like arseholes, everybody’s got one, so how about ponying up with at least one source, no matter how suspect, that supports your position? Hey, just one a post would be nice. You rant on and on and on. I’d rather be given a warm water enema and be sent on a fifty mile trek without loo roll than be as source bereft as you. So, just one other opinion that’s not your own to substantiate your claim.
The facts are this, you just don’t know. Maybe nobody knows. But sure as shootin’, you don’t. You fire from the hip and blow from the anal vent, but you don’t give anyone reason to believe you. No reason. No facts. No evidence, despite the opening to your pointless diatribe. Where’s you’re evidence, my friend?
Good advice, Sharon…but:
I am stocking up gradually. We can all take a tip from the Mormans. Yesterday I found their website for preparedness. I live in hurricane country; my farmer friends Sue and Jimmy live in MO in tornado country - wherever you live, whatever your lifestyle, it is a wise thing to put food by - whether you have a garden and can, a farm (hey, they KNOW what to do). But for suburbanites, like my son with a wife and small children, they really need to take this seriously.
I have some resources posted on my website, so please come and visit because it’s not just about food.
http://maylattanzio.blogspot.com/
Hi Sharon,
Yes to all of the prior comments-I’d just add that my favorite N. Stephenson is “Cryptonomicon”-you get some wonderful “conspiracy-theory” sub-text, and a wonderful story to boot. And, an education in the arcane world of higher math and cryptology. Highly recommended. Also, for the best in “magical realism”, I’m re-reading Mark Helprin’s “Winter’s Tale”. Heart-breakingly beautiful….
Peter
Kiashu,
“My reasoning that you can’t really call it a crash until things become substantially worse than they were. And I don’t see that happening for the world’s poor.”
You desperately require psychotherapeutic intervention if this is your experience. Otherwise, you’re a drug addled victim of your own hubris and there is little point engaging you whatsoever. Except maybe as a witness in a committal hearing.
Please, don’t visit Africa. Please, don’t visit the now Russian Federation. Please, whatever you do, stay away from Indonesia. Boyo, if it gets any better for the world’s poor, let us all be condemned to Somalia. Or Sudan. Or Eritrea. Is it possible your message getting faculties are starting to get the message? Swaned about DRC lately? Spent a really good day (or night) as a FARC rebel or hostage? I’d like to ridicule you on a world tour but there just aren’t enough bits to store the trip.
I know, I know, I know, I’m a fool to be sucked in by a troll. But what else can I do? Whatever Mr. K may be, one thing seems certain, human doesn’t seem even a minuscule constituent.
Hello Sharon, ok, I took a deep breath yesterday and sighed and refrained. As I see it, it’s more of the same coming from you…(sighing again). Might I susgest you stick to your “old timey” subsistence thing?
The way I see it Sharon, is that the world is confussed enough, without anymore distortions coming from you. Forgive me for saying this but I don’t believe you have any conception of what collaspe or crash or whatever, might be…. You’re almost like a person lashing out with a knife in the darkness at night. It’s only until daylight (when you see the light) when you realize the people you’ve hurt….
Thanks yooper
Thanks Sharon for your very valuable contributions. You have articulated what I have been feeling, regarding the path of our civilization.
The definition of the issues of fast crash / slow crash can be quite different according to how you see things.
To some a fast crash is an overnight abrupt change from some horrible exogenous event that changes everything.
For me, it can be a period of just a few years where things change radically without having single mass media event as a logical explanation for the change.
I am adding extra beds to the vegetable garden this year, and aim to grow a lot of potatoes!
Wow… there are some serious nuts visiting this blog. I didn’t read you as being mean at all, Sharon. *sigh*
I’m in the weird position of being very low income for the United States, but having help from someone with significantly more income, so I have food, but if he weren’t around I wouldn’t have as much. So I see both sides of this. And it never ceases to amaze me how blasé more-well-off people can be about not-so-well-off people. Hey, let ME decide whether I am in a crappy situation–you are not living my life, so you don’t really know.
Compared to Haiti, of course, I’m not. I wish I could help them. Not just the kids, either. How come nobody ever wants to help the *adults*?
I say do not get out of your car. Use it to take you to garage sales, public acutions and the local 2nd hand stores. These are great places to pick up tools, first aid items [got a walker and a set of crutches]? You may think I am only 25,36 or 49 and I am going to be healthy…do not count on that…
Get your bicycles up in shape with spare tires, tubes and a set of tools to fix it with and change the tires.
Put a large seat on the bike, the narrow ones will kill you if you ride very far. Use all of your convenices as long as you can..you will adapt when you need to.. those who are adaptable will, those who won’t will dissapear from the local scene. Do not trust you neighbor to be of the same mind set as you just because they live close by. Especially be wary of those who are steeped in a religiosity… they can harbor very strange and negative ideas. You should only trust your closest friends that you have a good look at how their thinking goes.
Be ready to say “no” to people who come begging.
Your handouts will not save them in the long run. This I learned in the Peace Corps from my time in the Sahel. When the JIT system begins to unravel you must be ready …this is going to be a long slow process with a few fast forwards at times when the outcomes of unintended consequences kick in to further weaken the stability of the situation. Remember that this event will be a punctuated event with fast and slow times and not an evenly spread out event. All pre preparations are for naught if you are not prepared to defend yourself from the fatherapers of the world. If you are not ready to kill a human to protect your family; then I suggest you get your KCN [potassium cyanide] capsule ready for insertion.
In the coming historical event there will be no second place winners in confrontations with strife or depletion of resources…
This is no game…
and until you see the first humans in America die from whatever, you will still see this series of events as some mystical dream like thing that is not real. Better get you psyche geared up for Reality 101 very quickly. Two things most people miss in preparations are: 1 a good library on gardening, survival, nuclear warfare etc; 2 a medical self help library…
Get a library together AND get a good set of the deLorean maps of your area from the local Wal-Mart store. And any that cover escape routes in all directions. Many of you are going to live for real events that eclipse any and all of the roles played by Charlton Heston in the movies… and you will get to do it in real time….
I wish you success.
The idea that money and food are the same…from the comments “countries give money for food for the poor”… Until you see the system work in a 3rd world country you just can’t appreciate offical corruption… It works like this…. select a market place, any one… let us assume it contains 1000 units of food. Along comes an organization such as the Lutheran World Relief Fund… they drive in with new pickups and give a selection of the christian villagers some money. Now they go to the market, it does not contain one additional unit of food because somebody injected outside monetary resoruces into the local system. They buy up a quantity of food that yesterday would have been bought by some other family…it just shifts the burden of starvation from one family or village to another. Money sent to starving people does not solve the food problem. In the Sahel I saw piles of grain as large as a small building… all marked “gift of Candada, not to be sold, gift of the USA, not to be sold, gift of Australia, not to be sold” and ALL of it guarded by soldiers with USA weapons and being sold by the host country for a profit of the elite. When I asked the Ambassoder about this, he said to forget about it and go out to the swimming pool and get another cold beer…. yes, that is the way it works….
Its money and power first and the people starve setting across the street form our grains given under the US Aide program… this I saw in Niger in 1988 in the capital city of Niamay.
UNfortunately the only thing that solves starvation is death.
And don’t condemn me for my outlook, I have served my time in the 3rd world and seen the poverty in Niger, Ecuador and Egypt.
Thank you for articulating that so well, Sharon.
As we grow food and build soil, may we also build our ability to keep our hearts open to the suffering that comes with sudden change!
Yooper,
I’ve seen your comments on other blogs and on other boards. I don’t quite know yet what your game is, but one thing I do know - you are one of the people who totally pegs out my “bullshit meter” every time you post.
Idaho Locavore,
No game here. I’m not playing any games. My message isn’t for everyone.
Yooper, then I think you owe Sharon an apology. That was totally condescending and uncalled for.
Planned Destruction of America
http://planneddestructionofamerica.blogspot.com/
What we are facing in 2008 is a Third-Way (socialist/
communist/capitalist) conspiracy to equalize the world’s
economies, as preface to installing one-world government;
a plan hatched during the 1940s GATT formulations.
Keep in mind that there is no PEAK OIL crisis—only a
decades-long, purposeful cap on searching and drilling and
refining for oil, in order to put the world in crisis-mode.
Using food to produce fuel is part of the conspiracy to
generate food riots, in order to destabilize governments;
and this so-called “war on terror” is also part of the
secret plan, although its primary beneficially is Israel
in the exchange of blood and treasury for oil–as payoff
for protecting Israel from an ever-threatening, encircling
Islamic Arabism.
Oil is payoff for the West’s efforts at providing PROXY
COMBATANTS for Israel–for protecting Israel from expanding,
encircling Islamic Arabism; a Jewish nation-state having
supporters throughout the West willing to destroy the entirety
of Western civilization for Israel’s sake.
That’s the gut-wrenching truth of why Western democracies
are sacrificing blood and treasury in the Middle East; especially
the U.S., which has enough off-shore and on-land oil reserves
to last 300 years at her present rate of consumption, and
which reserves were PURPOSELY capped and/or not drilled
because Israel’s supporters poured millions of dollars into
ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT groups’ coffers, to work at
keeping America from oil/energy independence and tied to
Israel’s interests in the Middle East. That’s the truth you’ll
NEVER see nor hear reported in Western mainstream news
media, because Israel’s supporters control what’s fit to be
said or printed about why the West wars with Islamic
Arabism.
“Because many nations’ agricultural production
will decline under NAFTA and GATT, in becoming
dependent on the more productive nations’
capacity to export cheaper product to them,
they’ll become gravely vulnerable to any of
the exporting nations’ food-production declines,
possibly resulting from bad weather conditions
or bad economies. ‘Free trade’ in food sets up
a looming catastrophe (read my essay, GATT:
Ubiquitous Treason)…Wouldn’t such worldwide
economic interdependence necessarily set the
stage for a worldwide economic collapse should
any one nation seriously falter? Such a
worldwide collapse would make America’s Great
Depression appear like good times. Why aren’t
the NAFTA and GATT crafters arguing for more
economic independence for nations - for rugged
individualism among nations – rather than
building this One World interdependency that
their brand of ‘free trade’ necessarily
engenders?”
The NAFTA Debacle (1995)
http://naftadebacle1.blogspot.com/
Idaho Locavore, ok, perhaps you’re right. The next time you think I’m full of bullshit, please bring it to my attention, I’d like to hear it……
Sharon, I’m sorry I’ve been hard on you. I very much like the grist of you’re article, however you’ve made some assumptions that I don’t necessarily agree with. Especially the part about we’ll always be able to outbid others for rice. Btw, where did that go?
As for myself, I try very hard not to suggest to anyone what they should or should not be doing. Like the grains of sand on the beach everyone’s situation is different. Some simply cannot change (even if they want to), perhaps you can be more sensitive to that. Other people, simply don’t believe there is a problem. Yet others, blow with the wind, one day one way, another way a day later…….
Fast crash or slow, a lot of people are going to die. A very bright man once asked a question of me, “Why must you tell me, I’m going to die?” That stopped me dead in my tracks… Really it’s not my responsiblity what people do with the information I might present. However, it is my responsibility in the way I deliever it….
Sincerely, yooper
Well spoken, Yooper. Pax?
Yooper, you are entitled to your opinion, and don’t have to apologize for expressing it on this forum. I’m glad, however, to know a little more about where you are coming from.
I think the odds are good that we in the rich world will always be able to outbid those living on 50 cents a day for rice. Whether we’ll always have rice is another question - I didn’t say no one would ever be able to outbid us.
Sharon
Sharon, I’m glad you got my message.
Thanks, yooper
Sharon, thank you. Breathing is one of those things that gets forgotten when we panic. We’ve had years to think about this, and as I posted on another blog, no matter when things heat up, something is always left undone. One thing that helps is to reflect on what we’ve got. Even if everything, I mean every-freakin-thing, collapses tomorrow, Americans are for the most part in some kind of shelter, we’ve had a meal within the last 24 hours, and we’ve had a few immunizations. That right there puts us ahead of quite a bit of the world, not even counting the stuff in and around our houses.
There was a bad tire dump fire in the neighborhood of our hospital once, and with very little notice our hallways and stairwells started filling with smoke. Needless to say, it was chaotic. I remember a homeless guy had dropped his bedroll at the nurses station and was helping the aides move patients who could walk so we could use the elevators for stretchers. He would help somebody, come back, look around, and mutter “Got my bag.” Then he would go off helping again. His definition of security was his bag — he had food and a place to sleep, and a few treasures.
You can’t plan for all the possibilities. You might end up in a smoke filled stairwell, or running out of canned goods, or watching a gas riot some time in the future. But right now, in this moment, most of us have got our bag, and the people we love do too. We might even have a bit extra for someone else’s bag. If we work together and help where we can, I honestly believe we can make it.
Sharon, I respectfully disagree that reading trashy novels is important to let yourself relax in times like these. I have those fears about what is going to happen, and then I relax by thinking out *solutions*. Fear and then denial or escapism seems counterproductive to me.
Reading a book about solutions is really important. I’m reading Deep Economy now, and it has definitely taken my mind off the problems and put it toward finding solutions. Gaia’s Garden and other gardening books are great ideas. You can also learn how to knit, sew, and do other important -but relaxing- things.
Now is the time to double task: relax and learn at the same time.
[…] says one of the suggestions on a recent post by Sharon Astyk. Good advice. So don’t buy rice right now. Take a deep breath again, and recognize that you and I […]
Yooper, I apologize for my hasty remarks. And since Sharon is well able to decide for herself when someone has gone over the line while expressing their opinion on her blog, I will be more careful not to be hasty in the future.
[…] Colbert and Kunstler are great, but enough levity. This gave me chills. Hirsch says we will soon look at the prices we are paying at the pump today as “the good old days.” Watch this, and if this is new and getting a bit scary, Sharon Astyk has some great info for you in this article, and in this one. […]